The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate near zero on Wednesday local time, but saidInterest rates may rise a little earlier than expected, while sharply lowering the US economic growth forecast for this year.。

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the latest interest rate resolution, keeping the benchmark interest rate at 0% Mel 0.25%, the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) at 0.15%, and the overnight reverse repo rate at 0.05%, in line with market expectations.

The Fed said it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasuries by at least $80 billion a month and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities until substantial progress was made in the committee's goal of full employment and price stability.

The Federal Reserve said in a statementThe pace of bond purchases may soon slow down. "if broad and sustained progress is expected, the committee believes that adjusting the pace of asset purchases may soon be guaranteed," the statement said. "

But there is no indication when this will happen. According to a recent media survey, investors expect the Fed to announce a reduction in bond purchases in November and officially begin in December.

In additionMore committee members now believe that the first rate hike will take place in 2022.When the Fed released its economic forecasts in June, a slight majority of members thought the rate hike would take place in 2023.

The Fed's bitmap showsNine committee members expect the Fed to start raising interest rates in 2022, accounting for half of the total number of members, up from seven in June.Among them, six members are expected to raise interest rates once in 2022, and three members are expected to raise interest rates twice in 2022.

There have also been some major changes in the Fed's economic forecasts:Prospects for economic growth decline and inflation expectations rise. Economic expectations showThe Federal Reserve sharply lowered the US GDP growth forecast for this year, raised its GDP growth forecast for the next two years, and raised the unemployment rate forecast for this year and the core PCE inflation forecast for the next three years.. Specifically:

The median forecast for GDP growth from 2021 to 2023 is 5.9%, 3.8%, 2.5%, and 7.0%, 3.3%, 2.4%, respectively, in June.

The expected median unemployment rate from 2021 to 2023 is 4.8%, 3.8%, 3.5%, and 4.5%, 3.8%, 3.5%, respectively, in June.

The median inflation expectations of core PCE from 2021 to 2023 are 3.7%, 2.3% and 3.1%, respectively, and are expected to be 3.0%, 2.1% and 2.1% respectively in June.

'The economy and employment have been strengthening and the rise in inflation largely reflects temporary factors, 'the Fed said in a statement. The industries most affected by the COVID-19 epidemic have improved in recent months, but the recovery has been slowed by the rebound in the epidemic. Progress in COVID-19 vaccination may continue to reduce the impact of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

After the release of the Fed's interest rate decision, according to CME Fed Watch, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates in the 0.5% range in November is 98.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 1.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0.5% range in December is 98.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 1.7%.