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大摩:市场面临“冰与火”的方向抉择 标普500下跌20%的风险增大

Omo: The market is facing the direction of “ice and fire” and the risk that the S&P 500 will fall 20% is increasing

新浪美股 ·  Sep 20, 2021 20:19

Headed by Michael WilsonMorgan StanleyStrategists say it is more likely that the US stock market will fall by more than 20 per cent.

While this is still the worst-case scenario, the bank said there was evidence that economic growth was weakening and consumer confidence was falling.

In a report on Monday, the strategists listed two potential market directions that they call 'ice and fire'. In the optimistic scenario of the so-called "fire", the Fed will scale back its stimulus to prevent overheating.

"the typical result of the 'fire' situation is a mild and healthy 10% correction in the S & P 500," they wrote in the report.

But strategists say the likelihood of a more pessimistic scenario of "ice" is rising, describing a sharp economic slowdown and a squeeze on corporate profits.

Because of worryChina Evergrande GroupThe debt crisis could affect the broader financial system, with global stock markets falling on Monday. The US futures market shows that the US stock market will fall by about 1 per cent at the start of trading. At present, however, the s & p 500 is only about 2% short of its all-time high.

On Wall Street, Morgan Stanley's strategists are more pessimistic than most other institutions, but their views echo other banks that have recently made ominous predictions.Goldman Sachs GroupStrategists at the Group and Citigroup Inc have also written reports that negative shocks may put an end to the sustained rally in the US market.

"will it be fire or ice? We don't know, but ice will be worse for the market and is moving in this direction, "Morgan Stanley's strategist wrote." "We think the transition in the middle of the cycle will end with a rolling correction that eventually hits the S & P 500."

JPMorgan Chase & CoInvestors are advised to hold defensive quality companies to protect themselves and to maintain the exposure of some financial stocks, which will benefit from higher interest rates.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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