share_log

股价大涨14%,低估的中国高速传动(00658)驶上风电快速路

Share price soars 14%, undervalued China High Speed Transmission (00658) drives onto Wind Power Expressway

智通財經 ·  Sep 15, 2021 19:01

Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality, photovoltaic and wind power fly together. Recently, the photovoltaic plate has fallen, while the wind power plate has taken advantage of the situation. China's high-speed transmission (00658) is up more than 14%, Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology is up more than 8%, and Shanghai Electric (02727) is up nearly 6%. Behind the sharp rise in the wind power sector, it is mainly due to the relatively cheap valuation and the continuous positive of the industry.

The sustained growth of the wind power industry is sufficient, and offshore wind parity is just around the corner.

For wind power, investors always have a lot of prejudice, that it mainly depends on policy subsidies, does not achieve affordable access to the Internet, and in the past two years, wind power has been in a rush to install the situation, its growth needs to be considered. However, based on the forecast in the China Power Union's "Analysis and Forecast report on the National Power supply and demand situation in the first half of 2021", by the end of the year, China's grid-connected wind power will reach 330GW (wind power installed at the end of the year 282.53GW), and the new wind power installation for the whole year is close to 50GW, which is expected to decline by 30.9% year on year, a compound increase of 41.8% over the two years in 2019.

In addition, according to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the newly installed wind power in the first half of 2021 reached 10.84GW, an increase of 71.5 percent over the same period last year, 1212 hours of wind power equipment utilization hours, an increase of 88 hours over the same period last year, wind power generation increased by 44.6 percent over the same period last year, and the cumulative installed capacity of wind power reached 290 million kilowatts, an increase of 34.7 percent over the same period last year. The bidding volume of wind power reached 32.92GW in the first half of 2021, which is close to the level of last year, and the data is much higher than expected. As a result, major brokerages have raised their wind power installation forecasts to 50GW in 2021, with an annual growth rate of 20 per cent. Once again, wind power is not cyclical stocks, but growth stocks.

In addition, from the macro level, from the perspective of energy structure transformation, under the background of "30.60" double carbon, the proportion of wind power photovoltaic non-water renewable energy in China's energy structure is expected to continue to increase. The notice on the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power in 2021 issued by the National Energy Administration clearly points out that the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts (about 1200GW) by 2030.

In addition, at the Beijing Wind Energy Conference in October 2020, more than 400 wind energy enterprises jointly issued the Beijing Wind Energy Declaration, ensuring that wind power will be installed more than 50GW annually during the 14th five-year Plan period, more than 60GW will be installed every year after 2025, and the total installed capacity will reach 800 million kilowatts (800GW) by 2030. In addition, the "five big and four small" electric power central enterprise groups have put forward the new energy installation plan during the 14th five-year Plan period.

According to the Fourteenth five-year Plan of the major central enterprises and the notice issued by the State Energy Administration, Societe Generale Securities expects that China's wind power is expected to maintain an annualized increment of 60GW installation during the 14th five-year Plan period.

At present, the land wind has achieved parity on the Internet, but the sea wind has not yet achieved parity. The end of this year is the deadline for state subsidies for offshore wind power. If the grid connection is not completed before this time limit, the three-tier subsidized electricity price of 0.85, 0.80 and 0.75 yuan per kilowatt-hour will no longer be enjoyed. Therefore, 2021 is actually the year of rush installation of offshore wind power, with the general decline in the bidding price of superimposed wind turbines and the gradual installation of large units, and offshore wind power is expected to provide a considerable increase in installed capacity this year. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the new installed capacity of offshore wind power reached 2.13GW in the first half of 2021, an increase of 102.0% over the same period last year, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power increased by 3.07GW for the whole of 2020.

Although the central government will replenish offshore wind power after 2021, considering the broad space for the development of offshore wind power in China, as well as the positive factors such as the economic drive to coastal provinces and the responsibility for the consumption of renewable energy, the offshore wind power industry chain still has a very great driving force for growth, and local subsidy schemes have been introduced in some provinces. On June 11, 2021, Guangdong Province issued the "implementation Plan for promoting the orderly Development of Offshore Wind Power and the Sustainable Development of related Industries". Investment subsidies will be given to projects that have been completed and approved by the end of 2018 and will be fully connected to the grid from 2022 to 2024, with subsidies of 1500 yuan per kilowatt, 1000 yuan and 1000 yuan per kilowatt in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. Offshore wind power in China has entered the final development stage before parity. With the policy support, the industry chain of offshore wind power is accelerated to mature and is about to enter the parity development stage. With the gradual completion of the cost reduction target of offshore wind power, offshore wind power is bound to flourish.

The data show that the technical development potential of offshore wind power within 200km and 1000m water depth in China is 2982GW, including fixed 1400GW and floating 1582GW.

Driven by semi-direct drive technology, gearbox becomes the core component.

From the above point of view, the wind power industry will be a better investment sector for a period of time in the future, especially the sea wind. Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power has more severe and complex operating environment and more difficult operation and maintenance, and often needs to meet the special requirements of anti-typhoon, anti-corrosion, lightweight, load optimization and other special requirements, so the reliability requirements of the whole machine and parts are obviously higher than those on land. Up to now, most of the offshore wind power related enterprises are mainly engaged in the onshore wind power business, and most of the offshore wind power business is the transplantation and extension of the onshore business; with the gradual shift of the focus of wind power incremental installation from land to sea, the proportion of offshore wind power business of wind power industry chain enterprises is also increasing year by year. Overall, China's offshore wind power industry is still in the stage of rapid growth, and the market pattern is not yet mature.

Due to the difficulty and high cost of offshore wind power operation and maintenance, compared with onshore wind power, the reliability requirements of the whole machine and parts are higher, and the advantage of industry dragon head know-how will be more prominent at sea than on land.

From the perspective of technology path, wind power has four technology paths, direct drive, semi-direct drive, doubly-fed and high-speed squirrel cage. In the early stage, there are more doubly fed fans and high-speed squirrel cage units, but with the development of technology, direct drive and semi-direct drive are the main ones at present.

The direct-drive wind turbine has the advantages of simple structure and low maintenance cost, so it is mainly used in onshore wind power. And the power of onshore wind power is lower than that of offshore wind power, and the bearing pressure is lower, so there is no need for gearbox, and the mechanical efficiency is higher. Offshore wind power is generally larger, and the pressure on the bearing is greater, so it needs to be equipped with a gearbox to reduce the bearing pressure. This means that the gearbox divides part of the bearing pressure and belongs to the core load-bearing parts.

From the cost point of view, the gearbox also belongs to the core components of wind power. According to Debon Securities statistics, gearboxes account for about 11% of the cost of wind turbines, second only to blades, and even higher in value than generators.

In the fast-growing industry, the link with the highest value in the whole industrial chain is undoubtedly the best investment. Although the cost of the blade link is as high as 17%, the main production enterprises of the blade link are Sinopec, time new materials, Tianshun wind energy and other enterprises, and the whole machine manufacturers such as Mingyang Intelligence also have blade business. In the early years, most of the gearbox links were foreign investment, and in recent years they are gradually being replaced by domestic enterprises. There are only two domestic enterprises, Chinese high-speed transmission and Hangzhou tooth advance. In terms of pattern, the competition pattern of gearbox is better.

For doubly-fed and semi-direct-drive offshore wind turbines, the reliability of gearbox is the core component that determines MTBF (mean time between failure and failure), while the price of gearbox for sea wind is not much different from that on land. Only the industry leader with cost advantage and a great deal of experience is expected to open up the situation in the offshore wind power market.

The business of high-speed transmission gearbox in China is growing rapidly.

According to Zhitong Financial APP, the main business of high-speed transmission in China includes wind power gear transmission equipment, industrial gear transmission equipment, rail transit gear transmission equipment and trade business.

In the first half of the year, the company achieved sales revenue of 10.602 billion yuan, an increase of 93.9% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 723 million yuan, up 139% from the same period last year. Among them, the revenue of wind power gear transmission equipment business reached 6.192 billion yuan, an increase of 32.1% over the same period last year. In terms of gross profit margin, due to the impact of new merchandise trading business, gross profit margin decreased from 21.5% (no merchandise trading business in the first half of 2020) to 17.0%.

With strong research, design and development capabilities, China's high-speed transmission products have covered 1.5MW, 2MW, 3MW, 4MW, 5MW, 6MW, 7MW and 8MW wind power transmission equipment, product technology has reached the international leading level, at the same time, all kinds of products have been supplied to domestic and foreign customers in large quantities. GE Renewable Energy, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (Siemens), Vestas and Suzlon and other international well-known wind turbine manufacturers are the company's customers.

Looking at Hangya Qianjin, the 2020 annual report shows that the company's 4XMW research and development is only in the preliminary plan. The annual revenue of traditional wind power products is 576 million yuan, and the gross profit margin is only 6.84%, which is much lower than China's high-speed transmission. Compared with the previous Chinese high-speed transmission has an absolute advantage.

In terms of valuation, as of September 15, 2021, the market capitalization of China's high-speed transmission is only 12.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, while PE (TTM) is only 8 times, which is significantly undervalued compared with some A-share wind power parts companies. As the core components manufacturer of wind power, with the rush of offshore wind power and the subsequent parity of offshore wind power, the net profit of China's high-speed transmission will hit a new high.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment