From factories in Vietnam and Malaysia to barber shops in Manila to office buildings in Singapore, governments in Southeast Asia are pushing ahead with plans to reopen the epidemic to strike a balance between controlling the epidemic and maintaining the flow of people and money. To that end, a series of measures have been implemented, including the delivery of food by the military, quarantine of staff, micro-blockades and allowing only vaccinated people to enter restaurants and offices.

Unlike Europe and the United States, which have also chosen to reopen, Southeast Asia has a very low vaccination rate and is one of the regions most vulnerable to Delta virus in the world. However, the previous rounds of economic stimulus packages and the weakening of the vitality of monetary policy have made the already tight national finances even worse, and the blockade policy has also begun to shake.

Krystal Tan, an economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Co., Ltd., said that even Singapore, which has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, has been struggling with the peak of infection, and reopening in other Southeast Asian countries and regions with lower vaccination rates would mean higher risks.

Blockade could hit the economy hard and spread to global supply chains

The average daily mortality rate in many Southeast Asian countries has exceeded the global average. However, governments in south-east Asia are increasingly concerned that the economic belt will be hit hard by restrictions that last too long but the vaccination rate is slow.

As the number of confirmed cases per day hit an all-time high, Malaysia cut its economic growth forecast for 2021 by half to 3% and 4%.

The recovery of tourism, a key industry in Thailand, is also rapidly disappearing.

Factory shutdowns caused by the blockade have also spread around the world, causing problems in the supply chain, with carmakers, including Toyota, slashing production and clothing retailer Abercrombie & Fitch warning that the situation was "out of control".

Vietnam and Singapore, which have economic growth forecasts of 6 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, are under increasing pressure to address global supply chain congestion and avoid dampening foreign investors' interest in Vietnam.

Vietnam is the riskiest in terms of its impact on the global supply chain. Vietnam's increasingly stringent blockade has taken a heavy toll on manufacturers and exporters, but failed to stop the spread of Delta.

The fatality rate of COVID-19 in Vietnam is as high as 2.54 per cent, well above the global average of 0.2 per cent.

Vietnam's Ministry of Trade warned this month that many factories were closed because of strict restrictions and that Vietnam was likely to lose overseas customers as a result. The European Chamber of Commerce in the country estimates that 18 per cent of members have transferred some products to other countries to ensure that their supply chains are protected, and more members are expected to follow suit.

Wellian Wiranto, an economist at OCBC Bank, pointed out that as the crisis continued, Southeast Asian countries were overwhelmed by the economic costs of successive rounds of blockades and the growing sense of fatigue among the public.

Continue to introduce new epidemic prevention measures to ensure the smooth reopening of the economy

In particular, Southeast Asian countries have struggled with the virus for longer than most countries in the world. as a result, instead of reducing confirmed cases, unemployment has increased. In this case, the patience of people in Southeast Asia is running out, and the government has to choose to change.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is focusing on long-term measures. The government is trying to strengthen regulations, such as years-long mandatory masks. Indonesia has also developed a "road map" for specific areas such as offices and schools to develop longer-term rules under the new normal.

The Philippines is trying to impose travel restrictions in more targeted areas to replace national or regional blockades, even including streets or houses. Vietnam is also experimenting with this measure. Hanoi has set up travel checkpoints and the government has put in place different restrictions based on the risk of the virus in different parts of the city.

In Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, only people with vaccine cards can enter shopping malls and places of worship, and in Malaysia, only people with vaccine cards can go to cinemas. Singapore requires restaurants to check the vaccination status of diners. In addition, in Manila, the government is considering the use of a "vaccine bubble" in the workplace and public transport, which allows fully vaccinated people to travel freely at their destinations without isolation.