Recently, the US stock market shock adjustment did not stop the US stock ETF from continuing to obtain net capital inflows.

Statistics show that since the second half of this year, S & P 500ETF has occupied three of the top 10 ETF with the strongest ability to attract money in the US market. These three S & P 500ETF alone took in a total of $27.361 billion in the second half of the year.

Among them, in September, S & P 500ETF (SPY), the largest in the US market, officially broke through the $400 billion mark. As of September 8, the latest size of the ETF is 407.377 billion US dollars, equivalent to more than 2.62 trillion yuan, which means that the size of this ETF alone far exceeds the total size of the domestic ETF.

It is worth mentioning that several cross-border ETF related to US stocks in the domestic market have also continued to increase their capital holdings recently, attracting more than 1 billion yuan in the second half of the year.

For the next trend of US stocks, the judgment of fund managers is not consistent: some fund managers believe that listed companies' higher-than-expected second-quarter earnings and low interest rates will provide support for US stocks and are expected to continue to push US stocks higher; some fund managers believe that as the US economy peaked, there may be more investment opportunities in other regions, superimposed by Fed liquidity tightening expectations, and a neutral view of US stocks.

The largest S & P 500ETF in the United StatesThe scale exceeds 400 billion US dollars.

Although the recent trend of U. S. stocks is volatile, trading is depressed, but the lengthening cycle can be called a model of long bull.

The s & p 500, for example, is up more than 19% so far this year, including nearly 5% since the second half of the year. Looking back over the past decade, except for a cumulative decline of more than 20 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, which once entered a technical bear market, the index has basically maintained a steady upward trend.

Such market conditions also let stock-based ETF products continue to get the attention of funds. Among them, the S & P 500ETF is particularly popular.

Statistics show that S & P 500ETF has accounted for 3 of the top 10 ETF with net capital inflows in the US market since the second half of this year.

Specifically, as of September 8, SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust (referred to as SPY) has received a cumulative net inflow of $13.054 billion since the second half of the year, Vanguard S&P500 ETF (referred to as VOO) received a cumulative net inflow of $10.551 billion in the second half of the year, and iShares Core S&P500 ETF received a cumulative net inflow of $3.756 billion in the second half of the year, with a total of $27.361 billion. Of these, the three S & P 500ETF have received net inflows of more than $10 billion since September alone.

At the end of August, the largest S & P 500ETF-SPY in the US market was $399.669 billion, breaking the $400 billion mark in September. As of September 8, the latest size of the ETF is 407.377 billion US dollars, equivalent to more than 2.62 trillion yuan, which means that the size of this ETF alone far exceeds the total size of the domestic ETF.

It is worth mentioning that since September, among the top 10 ETF with net capital inflows in the US market, there has also been a figure of an Internet ETF. Statistics show that as of Sept. 8, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (referred to as KWEB) has received a cumulative net inflow of US $943 million since September.

Domestic US stock ETF continues to receive funds for net purchase.

In addition to the ETF of the US market, the domestic related US stock ETF has also continued to receive financial attention recently.

According to Wind statistics, there are a total of 4 cross-border ETF related to US stocks in China, of which one is the S & P 500 and the other three are the NASDAQ 100.

Specifically, since the second half of this year, the Boshi S & P 500ETF has accumulated 213 million net applications to 1.52 billion, a share growth rate of 16.30%. If estimated on the basis of the average transaction price during the period, the total gold intake of the ETF in the second half of the year is about 576 million yuan. It is worth mentioning that as of September 9, the latest scale of the ETF has reached 4.191 billion yuan, which is also the largest of several US stock ETF. In December 2013, the ETF issued 565 million copies.

Cathay Pacific Nasdaq 100ETF has received 102 million net applications since the second half of the year to 474 million, a share growth rate of 27.45 per cent. If estimated on the basis of the average transaction price during the period, the ETF absorbed a total of 513 million yuan in the second half of the year, and the latest size of the fund is about 2.456 billion yuan. In April 2013, the ETF issued 268 million copies.

In addition, Huaxia NASDAQ 100ETF and GF NASDAQ 100ETF also received net applications for 49.5 million and 9 million respectively in the second half of the year, with share growth rates of 20.57% and 3.03% respectively, to 290 million and 236 million respectively, and absorbed 61.3355 million yuan and 27.2988 million yuan respectively in the second half of the year, with the latest scale of 371 million yuan and 741 million respectively. The initial issue size of the two ETF is 707 million and 263 million respectively.

Fund managers disagree on US stocks

For the next trend of US stocks, the judgment of fund managers is not entirely consistent: some fund managers believe that higher-than-expected second-quarter earnings and low interest rates will support US stocks and are expected to continue to push US stocks higher; some fund managers believe that as the US economy peaked, there may be more investment opportunities in other regions, superimposed by Fed liquidity tightening expectations, and a neutral view of US stocks.

Wan Qiong, manager of the S & P 500ETF fund at Bosch, said that with "mass immunity" and the real reopening of the economy, the United States will continue to maintain strong growth, the focus of economic repair will shift from the consumption of goods to the consumption of services, and the job market will improve significantly. Higher-than-expected second-quarter earnings are expected to continue to push U. S. stocks higher, and the positive impact of earnings growth is expected to outweigh the negative impact of lower valuations. In addition, with the repair and growth of corporate earnings, the number of companies in the S & P 500 that have issued buyback statements has rebounded to 2019 levels, and these buybacks are expected to inject new momentum into the stock market upside. The risk points facing the market are still rising inflation, rising interest rates on US debt and the recurrence of the COVID-19 epidemic. " Wan Qiong said.

Wu Xiangjun, manager of Cathay Pacific NASDAQ 100ETF Fund, said that the COVID-19 epidemic and Fed policy trends will become the focus of US stocks in the second half of the year.

First of all, in terms of the epidemic, the spread of the highly contagious new Guandalta mutant strain has led to a resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic worldwide, and vaccine popularization will remain one of the next priorities of the Biden administration. Faster vaccination efforts will help accelerate the pace of US economic recovery, providing strong support for risky assets, especially cyclical sectors.

Second, in terms of Fed policy, the current market judgment is that the Fed will send a signal as early as September that the exit is expected from the end of this year to early next year, but the possibility of advance is not ruled out if the employment data in subsequent months exceed expectations. As for the timing of the rate hike, although the Fed's lattice chart in June shows a turning hawk signal, it is expected to start as soon as the fourth quarter of next year, given the Fed's long-standing temporary tone on inflation.

"the shift in Fed policy will have an impact on various types of assets, when the overall US stock market will also come under downward pressure, and undervalued weekly stocks, which benefit from the pace of US economic recovery, are expected to become safe havens. The next step will be to keep a close eye on the US epidemic and vaccines, the US economy, the Biden stimulus package and changes in Fed policy. " Wu Xiangjun said.

Zhao Zongting, fund manager of NASDAQ 100ETF in Huaxia, said that with the gradual weakening of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and benefiting from the active macro-stimulus policies adopted by developed economies, overseas economies as a whole will continue to recover, but due to differences in vaccination progress, the pace of economic improvement among countries will be uneven. The US domestic economy, employment and inflation expectations add to the complexity of Fed policy and to some extent increase the variables in the second half of the year.

On the market side, the momentum of US economic growth has gradually peaked, and as the scope of economic restart extends to other regions (for example, Japan and Europe), it is expected that there may be more investment opportunities in other regions, so it takes a neutral view of the US stock market as a whole. The accelerated progress of vaccination has led to a cyclical rebound in domestic economic activity in the United States, from which the US small and medium-sized stock market is expected to benefit. " Zhao Zongting said.

Liu Jie, manager of the NASDAQ 100ETF fund of Guangfa, said that in the second half of the year, the novel coronavirus mutation may continue to interfere with the process of overseas economic recovery, and in the absence of stronger fiscal stimulus, the US economy may change from a strong recovery to a moderate recovery. As a result, it is widely expected that the pace of Fed interest rate hikes will slow further, and lower interest rates will support US stocks.

"the US market is one of the most important financial markets in the world and an important destination for global asset allocation. As the main index of NASDAQ, the Nasdaq 100 Index presents the characteristics of high technology, high growth and non-finance. Is the representative of the US technology stock index. And technology is one of the core competitiveness of the United States, so the NASDAQ 100 Index is still one of the indexes worthy of investors' attention in the medium and long term. " Liu Jie added.