The performance growth is in line with expectations, and the scale of adult education is large and growing fast.
The company's FY2021H1 achieved an income of 634 million yuan (+ 51.4%). The income growth mainly came from the rapid growth of undergraduate and adult education students, the increase in average tuition fees, and the consolidation of Harbin schools. Gross profit 452 million yuan (+ 46.0%); adjusted net profit 420 million yuan (+ 35.0%). The number of students in school is 104700 (+ 28.8%), of which 45100 are enrolled by undergraduates, accounting for 86.0%. The business of adult education is growing rapidly, with a total number of 51100 (+ 51.9%), accounting for 48.8% of the total number of students. the scale and proportion rank first in the industry.
The growth of endogenesis is strong, and Harbin schools have listed it.
In the 2021120022 school year, the number of students in the company's two schools in Guangdong was 94000 (+ 30.7%). Harbin School achieved a comprehensive list in April, with 9700 undergraduates and 938 newly enrolled adult college students. At the same time, the first-year post-secondary students were enrolled. In terms of tuition fees, the undergraduate tuition fees of undergraduate schools in 2021 are about 10% higher than that of the previous academic year; it is estimated that the tuition fees of secondary vocational school freshmen in Zhaoqing will increase by about 5.0% to 10.0% in the 2021 academic year. Since the acquisition of Harbin School, the post-investment management effect has been shown. The 2021H1 income is + 37.0% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is + 97.0%. Consider adding the 2020H1 to return the accommodation fee, and the net profit is + 50.0% compared with the same period last year.
Remarkable achievements in epitaxial mergers and acquisitions and clear plans for the future
The company completed the acquisition of 100.0% of the shares of Huaibei Institute of Technology and Maanshan College in March and July this year respectively. The two schools are expected to be incorporated into the group from the 2021Universe 2022 school year, when the number of students is expected to grow by more than 20.0%, and the total number of students will exceed 120000. In the future, the company will still maintain a fast speed of mergers and acquisitions, and the targets of mergers and acquisitions are mainly high-quality undergraduates. At the end of the period, the cash is 1.397 billion yuan, there is plenty of cash on hand, the asset-liability ratio is 47.1%, and the increase in liabilities is mainly due to the consideration paid by mergers and acquisitions of Maanshan University, the construction of the new campus of Huaibei Institute of Technology, and so on.
Maintain the profit forecast, maintain the reasonable valuation range and "buy" rating, we expect FY2021-2023 income to be 12.81,15.70 and 1.776 billion yuan respectively (including Harbin school income); adjusted net profit is 8.14,10.70 and 1.227 billion yuan. The closing price on August 30th corresponds to the forecast PE of 2021-2023, which is 9.52,7.24 and 6.31 times, respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating and a reasonable valuation range of HK $6.96 to HK $8.46.
Risk Tips:
The progress of transfer is not as expected; the progress of expansion is not as expected; there are negative events in school operation and management.