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天然气为何涨个不停?高盛:美国今冬恐迎13年以来最高价

Why does natural gas keep rising? Goldman Sachs: The US may face the highest price in 13 years this winter

金十數據 ·  Sep 10, 2021 20:05

Source: Jinshi data

Author: Wu Xiaoli

There is a serious imbalance between supply and demand of natural gas.

The United States is rich in natural gas reserves, so natural gas prices have been cheap for many years. Yet prices have doubled this year, making people jaw-dropping. Goldman Sachs Group and other institutions also expectThe price of natural gas will continue to rise in the future, which will increase the cost of heating and power facilities for some consumers in winter..

The rise in natural gas prices has also pushed up the share prices of natural gas producers such as EQT, Range Resources, Cabot Oil and gas and Antero Resources. In addition, in the futures market, the contract price of natural gas for October exceeded $5 per million British thermal units (mmBtus) for the first time since February 2014.

In addition to electricity and heating demand, natural gas is also an important raw material for the processing of chemical, fertilizer, paper and glass products. John Kilduff, a partner at investment consulting firm Again Capital, said:

"We haven't had a tight supply of natural gas for many years. We will focus on this this year. "

Natural gas prices are in the midst of a "perfect storm" of declining supply and increased demand, initially as unprecedented high temperatures across the United States, especially in the northwest, stimulate demand for air conditioners. this affects the number of gas reservoirs injected in summer, resulting in fewer reserves in winter.

Goldman Sachs Group analyst also pointed outThis winter will be colder than ever, so natural gas prices are likely to rise further. Goldman Sachs Group said:

"any temperature close to (or below) the average of the complete standard deviation could cause a surge in natural gas prices and lead to a collapse in demand, when natural gas prices could exceed $10 per million British thermal units (mmBtus). The last time natural gas prices reached such a high level was in 2008. "

Kilduff also believes that any outbreak of seasonal cold weather will push up natural gas prices even higher.

In addition, because the United States is the largest importer of natural gas, and the upward pressure on natural gas prices is global, natural gas prices in North America are now more affected by prices in other markets.

Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere Energy, said:

"We have observed that during the year of the outbreak, the global price of natural gas was $2, $2 in the United States, and $2 in Europe and Asia. However, as the economy began to recover, countries and companies around the world decided to use natural gas as the preferred fuel for clean energy transmission, and the demand for natural gas skyrocketed. The price of the same natural gas is $5 in the United States and now $20 or more in Europe and Asia. "

Fusco, whose company exports liquefied natural gas, predicts that 90% of its production will be sold out over the next 20 years.

It is worth noting that the US oil industry has recently been affected by Hurricane Ida, resulting in a sharp decline in production, with 77.3 per cent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico still closed. According to the US Energy Information Administration (Energy Information Administration), the current level of US natural gas reserves is 7.4 per cent below the five-year average and 16.8 per cent lower than the same period last year.

The imbalance between supply and demand of natural gas continues to attract investors to invest in the shares of natural gas producers, as well as the US natural gas ETF fund.

Despite the Biden government's call on Wednesday that solar energy will power nearly half of the grid by 2050, it now accounts for only 3% of the electricity supply.

Natural gas may still be an important fuel in the next few years.In its short-term outlook, EIA says natural gas will account for 35 per cent of electricity generation in 2021 and 34 per cent in 2022. The US government expects the average price of natural gas to be $4.69 per million British thermal units (mmBtus) this year.

However, EIA saidAs the use of renewable energy is expected to increase, the share of natural gas and coal as fuel for power generation will continue to decline next year.The agency said:

Due to the expected rise in natural gas prices, the share of coal generation is expected to rise from 20 per cent in 2020 to about 24 per cent in 2021 and 2022. The average share of renewable energy in US electricity generation is expected to reach 20 per cent in 2021, roughly the same as last year and rising to 22 per cent by 2022. "

Edit / tina

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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