Report guide
Medical beauty + medical two-wheel drive in the first year, the performance inflection point has arrived.
Main points of investment
Performance overview: the company's 21H1 income / net profit / net return profit is about 1.91 million yuan, an increase of 81%, 312% and 259% over the same period last year, and the gross profit margin / net profit margin is 76.9% and 31.2% respectively. Of this total, the income contributed by the medical and beauty business was 260 million yuan.
The promotion of Letibao products has been carried out in an orderly manner, with the coverage of the head 500 institutions reaching 80%. In February this year, Letibao was officially listed for sale. Thanks to its strong product power and channel promotion ability, 21H1 contributed 260 million yuan in revenue and 200 million yuan in operating profit. By the end of July, it had covered 1800 medical and American institutions, of which 80 percent were covered by the head 500 institutions. Letibao was originally a South Korean TOP1 botulinum toxin brand (with a market share of more than 50%), with solid products and differentiated competition in mid-range prices. The company plans to complete its goal of covering 3000 medical and beauty terminal institutions by the end of the year and achieve a 30 per cent market share in China within three years.
Agent + self-research is promoted synchronously, and the stock of medical and beauty products is sufficient in the follow-up. It is expected that Hugel hyaluronic acid will be approved at the end of the year and will begin to contribute income in 22 years. In addition, the company has obtained the exclusive agency of absorbable suture and tension-free urethral sling products under Korea Oriental Medical Association in China, both of which have been approved in China and can be sold quickly. Self-developed products such as Tong Yan Water Coagulation, Tong Yan Needle, Young Girl Needle, Collagen products and Fat-dissolving drugs are also being promoted in an orderly manner. In the future, overseas medical optoelectronic instruments, implant lines and other medical products will be introduced at the same time.
The inflection point of the impact of traditional medicine policy has emerged, and the transformation of innovative drugs has been accelerated.
Traditional medicine: the continuous volume of non-key monitoring catalogue products has become an important cash flow of the company. 21H1's non-key monitoring catalog products contribute 1.19 billion of revenue (year-on-year + 122%), and sector revenue accounts for 79% (year-on-year + 19.2pp). The inflection point of policy impact has emerged. The potential of the core product Klingao and powder double-chamber bag is expected, and a number of new generic drugs will be reported for production this year.
Innovative drugs: increase the investment in research and development, a number of products clinical progress has made a breakthrough, the future can be expected. 1) tumor drug innovation research and development platform Xuanzhu Bio has more than 25 products under research, 2 products will be declared as NDA,11 products into the clinical stage, and the production and quality pipeline will be further expanded through the acquisition of Kangming Baiao Mab Edit and Mebs-Ig antibody technology platforms. 2) Huisheng Biomedical Co., Ltd., as a leader in the field of biomedical medicine in China, has completed phase III clinical trials of its 1.1 new drugs gazepin, the fourth generation of Degu Insulin is conducting phase III clinical trials, and asparagus insulin injection, asparagus insulin 30 injection and asparagus insulin 50 injection have completed phase III clinical trials.
The increase in the proportion of high-margin products and the recovery of government subsidies led to the outbreak of net profit growth. 21H1's gross profit margin increased by 76.9% compared with the same period last year, which was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of revenue from high gross profit products; from the expense point of view, the sales expense rate was 13.7% (year-on-year + 0.8pp), which was mainly due to the rapid expansion of the company's business scale. 21H1 had a sales team of 1000 and more than 3000 co-distributors; the management expense rate was 14.6% (year-on-5.5pp), with obvious scale effect; and the R & D expense rate was 17.5% (year-on-11pp). Business structure adjustment superimposed 21 years of government subsidy recovery (year-on-year + 140 million yuan), the company's 21H1 net interest rate was 31.2%, an increase of 17.5pp over the same period last year.
Profit forecast and valuation: Sihuan Medicine has a deep accumulation in the field of traditional medicine, the growth of the new Botox track has certainty, and has entered the two-wheel drive era of medicine and medical beauty. Taken together, we expect the company's 21-23 revenue to be 37.3,53.5 and 7.41 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 51%, 44% and 39% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning home is 8.3,13.5 and 2.02 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 74%, 63% and 50% over the same period last year. The corresponding EPS is 0.13,0.22,0.33 yuan, and the current price corresponds to 22,14,9 times of PE.
Risk hints: under the influence of the epidemic, the development of the medical and beauty industry is not as expected; the risk of medical malpractice in the Botox project; the risk of increased competition in the botulinum toxin market; drug research and development is not as expected; the risk of changing