Events:
The company released its semi-annual report for 2021, with revenue of 1.661 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 2.15% over the same period last year; net profit of 246 million yuan, down 42.85%; and net profit of 223 million yuan, down 44.33% from the same period last year. Among them, revenue in the second quarter was 849 million yuan, down 11.11% from the same period last year, and net profit was 112 million yuan, down 16.33% from the same period last year.
Comments:
The revenue of 2021H1 headquarters reached 317 million yuan, down 35.49% from the same period last year. The GMV of 2021H1 Company's various channels totaled 19.103 billion yuan, an increase of 32.87% over the same period last year. Of this total, 2021Q2 achieved GMV99.79 billion yuan, an increase of 15.38% over the same period last year. BABA / JD.com / Pinduoduo / Vipshop Holdings Limited channel realized GMV45.5/13.70/ 31.21 billion yuan, with the same increase of-13.22%, 22.98%, 73.68%, 23.04%. It is estimated that the monetization rate of 2021Q2 brand authorization business is 1.80%, down 1.88pct from the previous year, mainly due to the slow growth of BABA channel, the company takes the initiative to adjust its revenue target to reduce the pressure on dealers' trademark inventory, and at the same time, the proportion of GMV in more channels increases. The company gives Pinduoduo channel dealers more profits and lowers the monetization rate; at present, inventory removal is smooth, and revenue is expected to improve significantly in the second half of the year. The revenue of 2021H1 time interconnection business was 1.344 billion yuan, an increase of 18.00% over the same period last year, of which 2021Q2 realized revenue of 684 million yuan, an increase of 11.21% over the same period last year.
The target of GMV is 300 billion yuan for five years. Focus on the "brand + consumer goods" two main lines, combined with "digital + supply chain", reach "user + channel", expand six major business lines: 1, brand authorization services: through cooperation and purchase a variety of models, to create about 20 world-class brands; 2, cross-border independent platform: through self-management model, to create a number of overseas sales platforms, such as women's wear Fommos, children's wear (mother and child), home appliances and so on. 3. Fashion industry brand matrix: upgrade and innovation of the national brand through self-management mode; localization transformation of overseas well-known brands; 4. Functional nutrition food matrix: through the mode of self-management and cooperation, expand functional and nutritious food subdivision categories, create food matrix; 5, Antarctic industry network: integrate upstream industry chain, reduce cost and increase efficiency. 6. Digital advertising + celebrity: subsidiary time interconnection and new media business.
Investment suggestion: take into account the impact of channel destocking and new business, downgrade the company's performance forecast. It is estimated that the EPS of 2021 Universe 2022 will be 0.42, 0.60, 0.84 yuan respectively in 2023, and the PE of the corresponding share price will be 19-14-10 times, and the target price will be lowered to 12.60 yuan, giving a "buy" rating.