Report guide
The company's high-end manufacturing logistics leading industry, cross-border e-commerce logistics growth in high demeanor, "location + warehouse clearance service" competition barriers to ensure sustainability, capacity release led to the ROE inflection point, the upward trend is higher than expected, covering for the first time, recommended to buy.
Main points of investment
Exceeding the expected point: the performance growth accelerated, the ROE inflection point appeared, and the upward trend was expected to exceed expectations.
The excellent ability of the company and the magnificent demeanor of the industry determine the worry-free growth in the future. After the optimization of the capital structure, ROE is expected to improve significantly: 1) short-term will usher in an inflection point: Jiacheng International Port (Phase II) is put into production, CAPEX is reduced, and the construction capacity raised by IPO is expected to be released at the end of 2021, ROE will usher in an inflection point under worry-free demand. 2) it is expected to continue to improve in the long run: the company has plenty of reserve projects in the next 3-5 years, and the average annual project ROIC is expected to exceed 10%. The company's asset-liability ratio is low, and after improving its capital structure, ROE continues to rise higher than expected.
Investment logic: manufacturing integrated logistics services expand the track to provide steady performance increment, cross-border e-commerce logistics services high growth is expected to form Davis double-click.
(1) High-end manufacturing logistics services: 1) high gross margin, light assets; 2) the deep "two-industry linkage" supply chain management model is industry-leading and efficient: by embedding the logistics industry into the manufacturing industry, the "four-in-one" of raw material logistics, production logistics, finished product logistics and reverse logistics can be achieved in line with the "short chain", "symbiosis" and "quality" of the 3s characteristics of the future logistics industry, so as to help the manufacturing industry reduce costs and increase efficiency. 3) expand the track to enter the automobile industry chain.
(2) Cross-border e-commerce logistics services: 1) the cross-border e-commerce industry has a high growth rate, large space and strong sustainability; 2) the company's business focuses on the two core links of "warehouse" and "pass" of cross-border e-commerce logistics services; 3) customer demand is stable and high. The company makes BABA (Cainiao, Tmall) and other major customers become long-term strategic partners and core service providers. 4) release the scarce high-bid warehouse capacity in the core location, and the performance growth rate is expected to stand on a new level.
Core competitive advantage: manufacturing "short chain, symbiosis, quality" + cross-border e-commerce "location, high bid warehouse, qualification" to ensure sustainable performance
1) after 20 years of accumulation and precipitation, manufacturing logistics has gradually formed "short chain", "symbiosis" and "quality".
The characteristics of Japanese high-end customer certification to provide endorsement, the expansion of a new car track can be expected. 2) "core location + high bid warehouse + qualification" is the important core competitiveness of the company's cross-border e-commerce logistics, which is deeply bound to BABA Cainiao to share the cross-border e-commerce dividend. Jiacheng International Port will release about 520,000 square meters of high-standard warehousing resources in the core location to make up for the gap of high-standard warehouses in the Nansha free trade zone.
Profit forecast and valuation: cross-border e-commerce logistics business has a high growth rate. According to the "Buy" rating, the company's revenue in 2021-23 is estimated to be 14.12 billion yuan, 2.10pm, 2.854 billion yuan, 22.6%, 49.4%, 35.3%, 2.06, 390, 530 million, 27.7%, 88.8, 36.2%, and 1.37, 2.59 and 3.53 yuan, respectively, in the next three years. Based on the high growth of the company, considering that the cross-border e-commerce business is in a high demeanor, and the company has core advantages such as "location and qualification", a certain premium is given to the average valuation of comparable companies (22-year 22x PE), corresponding to 22-year 25x PE. The target market capitalization is about 9.75 billion yuan, with a target price of 65 yuan, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the speed of project construction is slow; the prosperity of cross-border e-commerce is declining; the loss of key customers.