Recent situation of the company
XPeng Inc. released August sales data: August delivery of 7214 vehicles, year-on-year + 172.3%, month-on-month-10.3%, in line with market expectations; January-August cumulative delivery of 45992 vehicles, + 334% year-on-year.
Comment
The P7 hit a new high in April, and the launch of the new car is just around the corner. In terms of vehicle models, the P7 delivered 6165 vehicles in August, year-on-year + 208.9%, month-on-month + 1.8%, hitting a monthly high in April; G3 delivered 1049 vehicles, + 68.4% year-on-year, and-47.2% month-on-month. The delivery of G3 products was affected mainly because the company completed the production switch from G3 to G3i in August. Looking forward, the new modified G3i is scheduled to start delivery in September, and the smart car Xiaopeng P5 started pre-sale in July and is scheduled to be delivered in the fourth quarter, and the current pre-sale order is in line with the company's expectations; we believe that the two new models are highly competitive, and with the delivery of G3i and P5, the company is expected to further tap the incremental users of smart electric vehicles and promote 4Q delivery to a new high.
Production capacity expansion continued to advance, and diversified channel layout led to new growth. The company makes every effort to ensure production capacity to achieve the monthly peak delivery target of 4Q15000 vehicles. The Zhaoqing plant has started to arrange two daily production shifts in August, the second phase expansion project of the Zhaoqing plant has also been launched, and the company plans to increase the design capacity of the 1H22 Zhaoqing plant to more than 200000 vehicles per year; in addition, the company said that the construction of the plant in Guangzhou is progressing smoothly and is expected to achieve formal mass production in 3022. In the sales service and charging network, as of the end of June, the company had 200 sales stores and 231 brand overcharging stations. It is planned to have more than 350 sales stores and 500 brand supercharging stations by the end of 2021. We believe that the expansion of sales channels has been clearly reflected in the sales trend of P7 since June. Looking forward, the company reached a strategic cooperation with Zhongsheng in April to explore Zhongsheng's model of investing and operating XPeng Inc. brand authorized sales and service stores. We believe that the cooperation is expected to drive the company's sales growth and reduce operating costs, but also help to enhance after-sales service capacity.
2023 launched a new high-end platform, full stack self-research is the key to win. The company plans to accelerate the pace of its products, launching 2-3 new models a year from 2023, supporting XPilot4.0 and facing overseas markets, driving the main price range up to 400000 yuan. The next two new cars will be built on a new platform, mainly for middle and high-end customers. The company expects to form a core competitive barrier through the differentiation of standardized services and products, which is expected to be reflected in the product side in 2023-2025. With the development of new models, the company expects the R & D team to increase to 4500 by the end of the year. We believe that the company is expected to rely on the rare full-stack self-research capability in the industry, further achieve data closed loop, fast iteration, continue to release better intelligent driving functions, achieve brand upward and premium, and achieve continuous improvement in sales and market share.
Valuation and suggestion
The company's current share price corresponds to 6.9 times EV/Revenue in 2022. We keep the company's earnings forecast and outperform industry rating unchanged, and keep the company's target price of US / Hong Kong shares of US $55 / HK $215,215,36% higher than the current share price.
Risk
The epidemic and chip shortages affect production and marketing; the launch of new cars is not as fast as expected.