Event Overview
In the first half of 2021, the realized income / net profit / adjusted net profit was 634 million yuan, an increase of 51.4%, 25.6% and 35.0% over the same period last year, and the performance was in line with expectations; 2021H1 gross profit margin decreased by 2.7PCT to 71.2% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the consolidation of Harbin Petroleum Institute. The rate of sales expenses was basically unchanged at 0.5%, the rate of management expenses increased by 0.7PCT to 10.8% compared with the same period last year, and the financing cost rate increased by 2.5PCT to 2.9% compared with the same period last year.
Analysis and judgment:
2021H1 Harbin School has contributed to the increase in income and population. 1. Income: 2021H1 achieved an income of 634 million yuan, an increase of 51% over the same period last year. Harbin School made an increase in contribution in March 21. 1) by nature, the income from tuition fees is 588 million yuan, up 43% from the same period last year, the income from accommodation fees is 40 million yuan, up 684% from the same period last year, and other service fees are 5.37 million yuan, up 101% from the same period last year. 2) according to the stage, the income of undergraduate / junior college / secondary vocational / adult education is 4.42 million yuan, 0.59 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 57.3%, 1.8%, 16.2%, 33.3% over the same period last year, thanks to the consolidation of Harbin schools and undergraduate schools. 2. The number of students: the total number of students in the group is 104700, an increase of 29% over the same period last year; of which the number of Guangdong Institute of Technology is 86000, up 33% (29000 undergraduates, up 22%); Zhaoqing School has 8504 students, up 12% over the same period last year; Harbin Petroleum Institute has 11000 students, an increase of 14% over the same period last year (according to itself rather than the merger table).
In the future, Huaibei Institute of Technology and Maanshan College are expected to contribute income and performance increment. The company acquired the remaining 55% stake in Huaibei Institute of Technology in March this year to achieve 100% holding, was approved to be transferred in June and will start operation in September. In addition, Maanshan College is proposed to be acquired in July and is expected to achieve comprehensive consolidation after the change of organizers next year (profits can be consolidated first this year).
Growth-driven: 1) the capacity of the campus has expanded, and the school utilization rate of the 2021H1 Group has reached 95.2%, an increase of 13PCT compared with the same period last year. The construction of the new dormitory on the Gaoyao campus of Guangdong Science and Technology is expected to be completed in the third quarter of this year and can accommodate 3000 new students. 2) tuition fees have increased. In the 2021 academic year, the undergraduate tuition fees of all undergraduate schools increased by about 10% compared with the previous academic year, Guangdong Institute of Technology's undergraduate courses increased from 26800 yuan to 29800 yuan, and Harbin's undergraduate courses increased from 1.98-21800 yuan to 2.08-24800 yuan. 3) extension mergers and acquisitions: cash and cash equivalents were 1.397 billion yuan at the end of the first half of 2021. The Group maintains abundant cash for mergers and acquisitions, and is expected to land new mergers and acquisitions in the new school year in 2021.
Investment advice:
Considering the consolidation of the newly acquired schools, it is estimated that the group's main business revenue of FY2021-2023 will be raised from 100 million yuan in 11-13-15 to 1,771 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 47%, 37%, 20%, and the adjusted net profit will be adjusted from 7.87%, 965%, 1.37 million yuan to 78410.48 million yuan, with the same growth rate of 29%, 34%, 19%. There are opportunities to repair the valuation of higher education and vocational education, and there is still plenty of room for endogenous growth and extension M & An integration in the medium and long term, so as to maintain "buy".
Rating.
Risk hints: national regulations and policy adjustment risk, market competition aggravating risk, M & A progress or integration effect is not as good as expected risk, systemic risk.