Events:
JD Logistics, Inc. released the 2021 mid-year report: 2021H1, JD Logistics, Inc. achieved a total business income of 48.47 billion yuan, an increase of 53.70% over the same period last year; total operating cost was 46.7 billion yuan, an increase of 69.9% over the same period last year; gross profit was 1.77 billion yuan, down 56.4% from the same period last year; gross profit margin was 3.7%, down 9.2pp from the same period last year The net profit is-15.36 billion yuan, deducting the one-time loss of 12.84 billion yuan caused by the change in the fair value of the convertible redeemable preferred shares after the listing of the company, and the adjusted net loss is 1.5 billion yuan.
Main points of investment:
The revenue growth leads the industry, and the performance is under pressure during the expansion period.
2021H1 JD Logistics, Inc. achieved operating income of 48.5 billion yuan, an increase of 54% over the same period last year, leading the industry in revenue growth. High growth mainly benefits from two aspects: first, the company's integrated supply chain and other customer revenue increased by 29.6% and 164.8% to 33.62 billion and 14.85 billion yuan respectively in the first half of the year. Second, the expansion of external customers was smooth. 2021H achieved internal and external customer revenue of 220,26.5 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4% and 109.6% over the same period last year, and the proportion of external customer revenue increased to 54.7% (46.6% in 2020). The rapid expansion put pressure on the company's capital expenditure and cost control. In 2021, H1 achieved an operating cost of 46.7 billion yuan, an increase of 69.9% over the same period last year, resulting in a 9.2pcts reduction in gross profit margin to 3.7%. The adjusted net profit loss was 1.5 billion yuan, and the performance during the expansion period was under pressure.
Integrated supply chain products have been recognized, the proportion of external customers continues to improve sub-business, integrated supply chain business performance is outstanding. In 2021, H1, the integrated supply chain customer income was 33.6 billion yuan, of which the external integrated supply chain customer income was 11.7 billion yuan, an increase of 65.6% over the same period last year. The number of integrated supply chain customers reached 59000, an increase of 58.7% over the same period last year.
The rapid expansion of integrated supply chain business is the common result of the expansion of external customers superimposed on the original express delivery and the transformation of express customers. high growth and transformation means that integrated supply chain products are fully recognized by customers and the market. it is a strong attractive product model in the current logistics competition.
Redefine the integrated logistics, long-term optimistic about the company brand + data realization ability logistics is a strong "derivative" attribute of the industry, with the continuous evolution and iteration of business flow, logistics enterprises also put forward more comprehensive and comprehensive requirements. In the development direction of integrated logistics, JD Logistics, Inc. has brand talent and data genes that are difficult for traditional express enterprises to reach, and has walked out of the unique development model of integrated supply chain. But the explorer's road is full of thorns, a lot of pre-investment needs resources, and it takes time to cultivate users' habits. Although JD Logistics, Inc. is still in the throes of expansion in the short term, in the long run, the company's brand and data are the most scarce and unreplicable resources in the logistics industry. With the improvement of the company's capacity utilization and users' recognition of the company's products, long-term optimistic about the company's comprehensive logistics development.
Profit forecast and investment rating: coverage for the first time. It is estimated that JD Logistics, Inc. 's operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 103.018 billion yuan, 131.536 billion yuan and 160.384 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning home will be-15.526 billion yuan,-148 million yuan and 883 million yuan respectively. Give "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the risk of related party transactions brought by JD.com Group holding, the risk that market expansion is less than expected, the risk of intensified market competition, and the risk of declining demand.