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豆神教育(300010):“双减”落地教培主业承压明显 关注业务转型效果

Doushen Education (300010): “Double reduction” implementation, pressure on the main education and training business, clearly focusing on the effects of business transformation

國信證券 ·  Aug 30, 2021 00:00

2021H1 has a net profit loss of 213 million, an increase of 127%2021H1 over the same period last year. The company's operating income is 473 million yuan /-8%, and its net profit loss is 213 million yuan / 127%, deducting a non-parent net profit loss of 204 million yuan / an increase of 92% EPS color 0.24 yuan.

2021Q2, the company's revenue is 234 million yuan /-39%, and the net profit loss is 168 million yuan / the profit and loss is reduced by 463%. It is expected that the double reduction policy will hit the ground, and the development of the main education industry will be greatly affected.

Policy regulation tightens, education and training business seeks to transform aesthetic education, and the business of studying abroad continues to be under pressure from 2021H1. Chinese subsidiaries of large language companies will achieve revenue of 229 million yuan / + 26.2% in the future, and return to their mother's net profit loss of 33.58 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 238.8% from profit to loss. Of which 2021Q2 language income is 53.26 million yuan, Q1 income has dropped sharply compared with Q1 yuan, which is expected to be affected by stricter industry policy supervision. The company has launched a new art education sub-brand "Doushen Aesthetic Education" in May 2021. The further education service (hundred years of talents + Shanghai Tengyun) achieved an income of 2056 million yuan /-12.2%, with an estimated loss of 10 million yuan. The intelligent education business (mainly from the subsidiary Kangbang Technology) achieved revenue of 119 million yuan /-41.1%, with a net profit loss of 14.15 million yuan. The traditional business content (security) management solution achieves business income of 94.81 million yuan. Gross profit margin 35.48% Universe 4.47pct; net profit margin-46.01% Maxime 27.43pct; sales / management / finance / R & D rate-4pct; among them, the increase in management fee is due to the increase in equity incentive fees and labor costs in language business.

The "double reduction" policy officially landed and the main business was directly under pressure. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the effect of business transformation. The "double reduction policy" officially landed in July 2021. The policy carries out strict restrictions and norms on the nature of subject training institutions, school permission, training time, training content and other aspects, which is expected to have a greater impact on the main language training business. In this context, the company has gradually shut down the training business of the original discipline in accordance with the requirements, and gradually promoted the establishment of "Doushen Aesthetic Education" in local campuses.

The course. Although the company is actively transforming to deal with the drastic changes in industry policy, taking into account the emotional impact of parents' participation and the pace of its own transformation, we believe that the company's business is expected to be under relative pressure in the short term, and actively pay attention to the acceptance of the company's aesthetic education courses.

Risk hints: recurrence of the epidemic, less than expected business transformation, slow divestiture of traditional business, and so on.

Industry regulation increases, business urgently needs transformation, downgrade to "overweight" rating taking into account the epidemic situation and industry regulatory background, the company's business transformation will take time, downgrade 21-23 EPS to-0.30 EPS 0.14 yuan (0.85 yuan in 21-23), while downgrading the company to "overweight" rating, which can be closely followed.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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