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25家投行前瞻:美国8月非农或凸显就业市场持续短缺

Outlook of 25 investment banks: us non-farm may highlight persistent shortage of job market in August

匯通網 ·  Sep 1, 2021 21:10

Original title: outlook of 25 investment banks: us non-farm may highlight persistent shortage of job market in August

The change in non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate after the August quarterly adjustment in the United States will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, including Morgan Stanley on Wednesday.Twenty-five large investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, published their forecasts for the data, as shown below.

The forecasts of 25 large investment banks show that there is a large gap in the expectations of the major investment banks for the growth of non-farm payrolls in August. specifically, after the quarterly adjustment in August, non-farm payrolls in the United States are expected to grow by 400000 to 1 million, the unemployment rate is expected to be 5.1%, and the average annual rate of hourly wage growth is expected to be 3.6%, 4.1%.

Imperial Commercial Bank of Canada believes that hiring in the United States appears to continue to grow rapidly in August, with increased wages and hiring likely to boost net non-farm payrolls by 900000. Job growth will once again focus on reopened services, while state and local governments could have used recent federal funds to increase numbers further. Even if the labour force participation rate seems to have risen, a huge increase in employment could lead to a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.2 per cent. The monthly rate of wage growth is likely to fall to 0.3 per cent, which is still a strong figure indicating a continuing labour shortage.

In predicting US non-farm payrolls data for August, analysts at TD Securities said payrolls could slow sharply after a surge of 943000 in July. A slowdown in employment will prompt the Fed to abandon its announcement of debt reduction in September. We will re-evaluate our forecasts after more regional surveys on August employment data are released, but already released surveys show that US economic activity has slowed as the boost from reopening and fiscal stimulus weakens. The recent COVID-19 epidemic may also have led to an economic slowdown. Nevertheless, the level of indicators remains at a fairly high level, in line with the still robust pace of economic growth.

NatWest Markets Plc. Said that if the U.S. jobs report is strong, it could increase the likelihood that the Fed will start reducing the size as soon as next month. This will be bad for higher-yielding emerging market assets. Us non-farm payrolls growth is likely to slow in August after the biggest increase in nearly a year the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed.

Interest in gold increased after Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell delivered a dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. At the time, Powell did not give an exact timetable for the Fed to start cutting back on asset purchases. Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, said the Fed will pull the trigger, but will not scale back monetary easing significantly in the coming months, so gold prices should do well in the end.

The US non-farm payrolls report will show how resilient the US labor market is in the face of the recent Delta epidemic. Weak data may push gold closer to $1900. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell revealed that the Fed may begin to scale back its bond purchases this year, but there is little explanation about the speed and timing of reducing bond purchases. Huang Jian closed above $1800 again last Friday. It suggests that interest in gold as a hedge against inflation may be recovering, rising to $1830 in the short term if the rally continues, and to $1900 if the non-farm payrolls report is disappointing.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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