Antarctic e-commerce (002127): GMV 300 billion yuan for more than half a five-year plan

華西證券 · Aug 29, 2021 00:00

　　事件概述

　　2021H 公司收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利分别为16.61/2.46/2.23 亿元、同比增长2%/-43%/-44%、较2019H增长2%/-36%/38%，低于预期。2021Q2 公司收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利分别为8.49/1.12/0.95 亿元、同比下降11%/63%/68%、较2019Q2 增长5%/-58%/-61%。2021H 账上现金+其他流动资产为18.30 亿元。经营现金流净额/净利为-109%、同比下降103PCT、较2019H 下降147PCT。

　　公司发布股票期权激励计划，向任职董事、高级管理人员、中层管理人员和核心技术（业务）骨干等106人发放4,000 万份股票期权，行权价格为7.09 元/股，业绩考核目标为2021/2022 年收入较2020 年不低于15%/30%。

　　分析判断:

　　阿里渠道去标库存导致收入增长低于GMV 增长，21H 提高收费标准。收入分拆：分母子公司来看，2021H南极电商本部收入3.17 亿元（-35%）、主要受阿里去标库存影响，净利率同比下降17PCT 至60%；时间互联收入13.44 亿元（同比增长18%、较19H 增长11%），净利率同比下降0.63PCT 至3.86%。目前时间互联已成为小米效果电商、VIVO 电商金融、OPPO 网服、快手KA 的独家/核心/核心/核心代理商，未来将重点加大短视频营销业务布局，打造 KOL 矩阵，通过广告和内容电商等方式变现。

　　2021H 年GMV 为191.03 亿元、同比增长32.87%、较19 年同期增长73.98%。2021Q2 同比增长15.38%、较19Q2 增长71.34%。2021H 年货币化率约为1.49%、同比下降1.68PCT、较19 年同期下降1.71PCT，主要由于阿里渠道去标库存导致收入增长低于GMV 增长，而2021H 公司提升了品牌综合服务费的收费标准，平均收费标准增长超过 8%。

　　（1）分平台来看，阿里放缓，拼多多、抖音&快手翻倍增长。公司在阿里/拼多多/京东/唯品会/抖音&快手平台GMV 分别为91.47 /56.96 /28.54 /9.91 /4.15 亿元、增速分别为4%/116%/39%/41%/NA、较19 年同期增长24%/319%/62%/127%/NA，占比分别为47.88%/29.83%/14.94%/5.19%/2.17%，阿里占比下降13PCT，拼多多/京东/唯品会/抖音&快手上升11/0.70/0.30/0.98PCT。

　　（2）分量价来看，2021H 全平台购买人次约为2.65 亿人次、同比增长24%、较19H 增长78%，推算单价为72.09 元、同比增长7.09%、较19H 降低2.07%。

　　（3）截至2021H 末，公司共有7943 家授权经销商、较年初增加31%，1730 家授权供应商、较年初增加7%，9859 家店铺、较年初增加34%，平均每家经销商拥有1.24 家店铺、较2020 年提高（2020 年平均每家经销商拥有1.21 家店铺）。

　　（4）分品牌来看，南极人/卡帝乐/精典泰迪GMV 分别为170.9/18.48/1.65 亿元、同比增长32%/44%/62%、较19H 增长79%/46%/85%。

　　成本端较为固定、收入下滑使得毛利率大幅下降。2021H1 毛利率为22.91%、同比下降10.17PCT、较19H1下降6.83PCT；21Q2 毛利率为22.40%、同比下降14.24PCT、较19Q2 下降15.74PCT，主要受现代服务业毛利率下降影响，现代服务业/移动互联网行业毛利率分别为83.50、%/同6.比61下% 降8.08/0.16PCT、较19H1 下降9.09/1.05PCT，现代服务业毛利率下降主要由于收入大幅下降、而成本较为固定。

　　Q2 新增跨境和食品业务，净利率主要受毛利率下降及费用率增加影响。21H1 净利率为14.71%、同比下降11.74PCT 、较19H1 下降8.92PCT 。从费用率看， 2021H1 销售/ 管理/ 研发/ 财务费用率分别为3.67%/3.79%/1.20%/-1.87%、同比增加0.84/0.47/-0.39/-0.27PCT、较19H1 增加1.65/1.22/0.10/-1.81PCT。

　　21Q2 单季度净利率为13.11%、同比下降18.49PCT、较19Q2 下降19.50PCT，从费用率看，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为4%/4%/1%/-2%、同比增长1/1/0/0PCT、较19Q2 提高1.67/1.78/0.07/-1.77PCT，销售、管理费用率提升主要由于Q2 新增跨境和食品业务、对应人力费用增加。

　　经营性现金流净额同比下降928%至-2.65 亿元，主要由于移动互联网业务新增大客户导致预付规模增加、以及品牌综合服务收入下滑导致收款减少。经营现金流净额/净利为-109%、同比下降103PCT、较2019H 下降147PCT。从净营业周期角度来看，2021H 净经营周期为118 天、同比增加25 天、较2019H 增加38 天，其中应收账款周转天数同比增加28 天、较2019H 增加43 天，应付账款周转天数为15 天、同比增长3 天、较19H 增长5 天。

　　投资建议

　　公司中报中提出5 年规划，力争五年内实现 GMV 约 3,000 亿元（零售端约 2,000 亿，供应链服务端约1,000 亿），2020-2025 年GMV 年复合增速超49%。短期来看，信息流的趋势对公司带来较大影响、公司仍处于去库存之中，预计下半年有望实现收入和利润同步增长；理顺之后，公司有望加大代发货+控低价+提高服务费，在拼多多、抖音、京喜等继续拓展店铺。中期来看，我们需关注公司在直播等新渠道的拓展；长期来看，关注非纺服品类的扩张进度，我们分析，“品牌模糊化”的品类是南极的机会所在，公司优势在于捕捉爆款并快速实现供应链转化的反应能力。考虑到21 年受阿里渠道影响净利率低于预期，维持收入不变，将21/22/23年EPS 下调17%/9%/8%至0.50/0.71/0.87 元、对应PE18/13/10X，维持“增持”评级。公司计划回购3-5 亿元，目前回购已完成，共回购3273 万股、占公司总股本的1.33%，回购均价为9.17 元，提供相对安全边际。

　　风险提示

　　平台竞争格局变化风险；品类扩张不及预期；扩张期货币化率下降；系统性风险。

Event Overview

The income / return net profit / deduction non-return net profit of 2021H is RMB 1.661 million, 2.46 billion yuan, up 2%, 43%, 44%, and 2%, 36%, 38% respectively over 2019H, which is lower than expected. The income / return net profit / deduction non-return net profit of 2021Q2 company is respectively 8491,120.95 million yuan, down 11%, down 11%, 63%, 68%, and increasing by 5%, 5%, 58%, 61%, respectively, compared with 2019Q2. The cash plus other current assets on the 2021H account is 1.83 billion yuan. Net operating cash flow / net profit was-109%, down 103PCT from the same period last year and 147PCT from 2019H.

The company issued a stock option incentive plan to issue 40 million stock options to directors, senior managers, middle managers and core technical (business) backbones. The exercise price is 7.09 yuan per share. The performance evaluation target is 2021 gamma 2022 income is not less than 15% of 2022 compared with 2020. 30%.

Analysis and judgment:

BABA channel deregulation inventory led to lower income growth than GMV growth, 21H raised the standard of charges. Revenue split: from the perspective of parent and subsidiary companies, the main income of 2021H Antarctic e-commerce is 317 million yuan (- 35%), which is mainly affected by BABA's unmarked inventory, and the net interest rate decreases by 17PCT to 60% compared with the same period last year; time interconnected income is 1.344 billion yuan (up 18% year-on-year and 11% over 19H), and the net interest rate is down 0.63PCT to 3.86% compared with the same period last year. At present, time Interconnection has become the exclusive / core agent of XIAOMI effect e-commerce, VIVO e-commerce finance, OPPO net service and Kuaishou Technology KA. In the future, it will focus on increasing the layout of short video marketing business, creating a KOL matrix, and realizing it through advertising and content e-commerce.

In 2021H, GMV was 19.103 billion yuan, an increase of 32.87% over the same period last year and 73.98% over the same period in 19 years. 2021Q2 grew 15.38% year-on-year and 71.34% higher than 19Q2. The monetization rate in 2021H was about 1.49%, down 1.68PCT from the same period last year and 1.71PCT compared with the same period in 19 years, mainly due to the lower income growth than GMV growth due to the de-marking inventory of BABA channels, while 2021H raised the charging standard of brand comprehensive service charges, with an average increase of more than 8%.

(1) from the perspective of sub-platform, BABA slowed down, while Pinduoduo, Douyin & Kuaishou Technology doubled their growth. The company's GMV on BABA / Pinduoduo / JD.com / Vipshop Holdings Limited / Douyin & Kuaishou Technology platform is RMB 91.4756.9628.54 / 9.91 / 415 million, the growth rate is 4%/116%/39%/41%/NA, the growth rate is 24%/319%/62%/127%/NA over the same period in 19 years, and the proportion is 47.88%, 29.83%, 14.94%, 5.19%, 2.17%, respectively, while BABA's share decreases in 13PCT. Pinduoduo / JD.com / Vipshop Holdings Limited / Douyin & Kuaishou Technology rose 11/0.70/0.30/0.98PCT.

(2) in terms of weight price, the number of people who purchased 2021H on the whole platform was about 265 million, an increase of 24% over the same period last year and 78% over 19H. The estimated unit price was 72.09 yuan, an increase of 7.09% over the same period last year, and a decrease of 2.07% compared with 19H.

(3) by the end of 2021H, the company had 7943 authorized distributors, 31% more authorized suppliers than at the beginning of the year, 7% more than at the beginning of the year, and 34% more than at the beginning of the year. the average number of stores per dealer is 1.24, which is higher than that of 2020 (the average number of stores per dealer in 2020 is 1.21).

(4) from a brand point of view, the Antarctic / Cadillac / Classic Teddy GMV is RMB 170.9, 1.848, 165 million, an increase of 32%, 44%, 62% and 85%, respectively, over 19H, 79%, 46% and 85% respectively.

The fixed cost side and declining revenue have led to a sharp drop in gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 2021H1 was 22.91%, down 10.17PCT from the same period last year, 22.40% from 19H1, 14.24PCT from the same period last year, and 15.74PCT from 19Q2, mainly affected by the decline in gross profit margin of modern service industry. The gross profit margin of modern service industry / mobile Internet industry was 83.50% and 6% respectively. Lower 8.08/0.16PCT than 61%, lower 9.09/1.05PCT than 19H1, the decline in gross profit margin of modern service industry is mainly due to a sharp decline in income, while the cost is relatively fixed.

Q2 added cross-border and food business, and the net profit margin was mainly affected by the decline in gross profit margin and the increase in expense rate. The net interest rate of 21H1 is 14.71%, down 11.74PCT from the same period last year and 8.92PCT lower than that of 19H1. In terms of expense rate, the 2021H1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 3.67%, 3.79%, 1.20%, 1.87%, respectively, with an increase of 0.84/0.47/-0.39/-0.27PCT over the same period last year, and an increase of 1.65/1.22/0.10/-1.81PCT compared with 19H1.

The net interest rate of 21Q2 in one quarter is 13.11%, which is lower than that of 18.49PCT and 19.50PCT compared with 19Q2. In terms of expense rate, the rate of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses is 4%, 4%, 1%, 2%, 1/1/0/0PCT, and 1.67/1.78/0.07/-1.77PCT higher than that of 19Q2, respectively. The increase in the rate of sales and management expenses is mainly due to the increase in Q2's cross-border and food business and the corresponding increase in labor costs.

The net operating cash flow decreased by 928% to-265 million yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the scale of prepayments caused by the new major customers in the mobile Internet business and the decline in revenue from brand integrated services. Net operating cash flow / net profit was-109%, down 103PCT from the same period last year and 147PCT from 2019H. From the perspective of net operating cycle, the net operating cycle of 2021H was 118 days, an increase of 25 days over the same period last year and 38 days over 2019H, in which accounts receivable turnover days increased by 28 days compared with the same period last year and 43 days over 2019H. Accounts payable turnover days were 15 days, 3 days year-on-year and 5 days higher than 19H.

Investment suggestion

The company put forward a five-year plan to achieve a GMV of about 300 billion yuan within five years (about 200 billion at the retail end and 100 billion at the service end of the supply chain), with a compound annual GMV growth rate of more than 49% from 2020 to 2025. In the short term, the trend of information flow will have a great impact on the company, the company is still in the process of destocking, and it is expected to achieve simultaneous growth of revenue and profit in the second half of the year; after straightening out, the company is expected to increase delivery + control low prices + increase service charges, and continue to expand stores in Pinduoduo, Douyin, Jingxi, etc. In the medium term, we need to pay attention to the expansion of the company's new channels such as live broadcasting; in the long run, we focus on the expansion progress of the non-textile category, and we analyze that the category of "brand fuzziness" is the opportunity in Antarctica. the company's advantage lies in its ability to capture popular styles and quickly transform its supply chain. Considering that the net interest rate affected by BABA channel in 21 years is lower than expected and the income remains unchanged, the annual EPS in 21-22-23 will be reduced by 17%, 9%, 8%, to 0.50, 0.71, and 0.87 yuan, corresponding to PE18/13/10X, and the "overweight" rating will be maintained. The company plans to buy back 300-500 million yuan. At present, the repurchase has been completed, with a total of 32.73 million shares, accounting for 1.33% of the company's total share capital. The average repurchase price is 9.17 yuan, providing a relative margin of safety.

Risk hint

The risk of the change of platform competition pattern; category expansion is not as expected; the monetization rate decreases during the expansion period; systemic risk.

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南极电商(002127)：去库存过半 五年规划GMV3000亿元

Antarctic e-commerce (002127): GMV 300 billion yuan for more than half a five-year plan

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Statement

南极电商(002127)：去库存过半五年规划GMV3000亿元