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佳兆业集团(1638.HK):旧改转化持续超预期 三条红线全部达标

Kaisa Group (1638.HK): The transformation of old reform continues to exceed expectations, and all three red lines meet the standards

第一上海 ·  Aug 30, 2021 00:00

Core profit increased by 29% to 3.93 billion: by mid-2021, the company realized operating income of 30.07 billion yuan, an increase of 35% over the same period last year, a gross profit of 9.27 billion yuan, an increase of 23% over the same period last year, and a gross profit margin of about 30.9%. Due to the effectiveness of digital technology and lean management performance, the company's operating rate decreased by 0.83 percentage points to 2.52%, and the management rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points to 4.81%. The company realized a mother profit of 3 billion yuan, an increase of 8% over the same period last year, a core profit increase of 29% to 3.93 billion yuan, and a profit rate of 10.3%, which remained basically stable.

The reform will continue to accelerate, and the target for the sale of rights and interests will remain unchanged for 21 years: from January to June 2021, the company realized about 63.85 billion yuan in sales of rights and interests contracts, an increase of 77 percent over the same period last year, and 49 percent of the 130 billion sales of rights and interests for the whole year. It is estimated that the sales value in the second half of the year is about 127 billion yuan, which is likely to achieve the annual sales target. By the middle of 2021, the company now has 3114 cubic meters of land, with a total value of about 734.7 billion yuan. In addition, the company has continued to exceed expectations in recent years. As of the first half of the year, the company has successfully converted 113 million sellers, with a sales value of 72.7 billion yuan, which has exceeded the conversion volume for the whole of last year. It is estimated that there are still 74.2 billion net worth to be converted in the second half of the year, and the annual net value will exceed 140 billion yuan. At the same time, it is estimated that 216.2 billion will still be successfully converted in the next 1 to 2 years, and even if the company does not make great efforts to acquire land, the transformation of the reform and transformation of the company in the extended period can still be used by the company to recharge the land. Up to the medium term, the company has 213 urban renewal projects, covering an area of more than 5370 square meters. Under the current situation that the profit rate of the bidding market is not satisfactory and the special projects are scarce, adequate and expensive reform equipment and strong reform and transformation implementation capacity will provide a certain guarantee for the future growth of sales and there is still available profit space.

The service structure persists in slowing down, and the three-tier line is released ahead of schedule: in addition to the company's sales and continued healthy growth, the company also maintains a financing structure. As of mid-2021, the company's total debt has reached 123.8 billion yuan. The company's debt ratio is 93.7%, the short-term ratio is 1.53, the asset loss rate is about 69.9% after excluding the expected payment, and all the three lines are in good condition.

With a target of 4.5 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a high level: our company's operating conditions are in line with good conditions, the transformation of reform continues to accelerate, sales are expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in the coming years, and the structure of sales is also changing continuously. the total operating maintenance is stable, and the three-point line is all stable. We expect to realize a profit of 6.8 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan and 10.6 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023. According to the examination, the possibility of a substantial relaxation of the real estate policy is very low, and more of it is that the land has achieved international improvement and the industry has not been completely cleared. The valuation of the whole board has been accepted since then, and our company has been valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3 times earnings for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of HK $4.50.

Hint: the real estate market control policy continues to collect the sales contract, the transformation is not as expected, and the corporate governance is not as good as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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