Events:
On August 30, 2021, the company released its semi-annual report of 2021: the company realized operating income of 17.749 billion yuan, an increase of 79.08% over the same period last year; the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 1.469 billion yuan, an increase of 208.93% over the same period last year; the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profits and losses was 1.45 billion yuan, an increase of 228.55% over the same period last year; the net cash inflow of operating activities was 1.046 billion yuan, an increase of 168.79% over the same period last year. Basic earnings per share is 0.78 yuan.
Main points of investment:
The performance exceeded expectations and the profitability reached a new high in a single quarter.
2021Q2, the company realized operating income of 9.048 billion yuan, year-on-year + 73.54%, month-on-month + 3.99%, net profit of 802 million yuan, year-on-year + 188.93%, month-on-month + 20.28% The significant increase in performance during the reporting period was mainly due to the release of production capacity such as nitrile latex phase II (100,000 tons / year) and methyl methacrylate phase II (100000 tons / year) (revenue from other chemical sectors was + 310.68% compared with the same period last year), the increase in maleic anhydride prices of major products and the increase in supply chain business (revenue increased by 75.10% compared with the same period last year). The net cash flow generated by operating activities was 349 million yuan. The weighted average ROE is 7.17%, year-on-year + 3.66 pct, month-on-month + 0.39 pct. Sales gross profit margin / net profit margin 15.64% soybean 9.21%, month-on-month + 3.64 pound 1.18 pct, a new high for a single quarter. In terms of the three fees, the company recorded the sales / management / R & D / financial expenses of 0.82, 2.18 and 1.76 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 0.52%, 3.19%, 1.94% and 0.70%, respectively.
The company has the maximum production capacity of maleic anhydride and methyl ethyl ketone in the world, and the product price rises. The company has now built a 200,000 tons / year production capacity of n-butane oxidation to maleic anhydride, which is the largest maleic anhydride production enterprise in the world. There are also 200000 tons of capacity expansion projects in the future. It is estimated that after completion, the overall design capacity of the company's maleic anhydride plant will reach 400,000 tons / year. In 2020, the company's maleic anhydride products in the domestic market share of more than 30%, export share of more than 50%; maleic anhydride prices driven by downstream products BDO, the economy continues to rise. As the downstream products of maleic anhydride, such as unsaturated resin, are about to enter the peak season of traditional consumption, we believe that the prosperity of maleic anhydride will be maintained.
In the second quarter of 2021, the average price of maleic anhydride was 10102.42 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.45% compared with the previous month. The average price of maleic anhydride in August 21 was 10808.80 yuan / ton. The company also has the world's largest single set of methyl ethyl ketone production capacity of 180000 tons. At present, the share of domestic production and sales is more than 50%. In the future, the company will continue to expand production capacity of 90,000 tons, and the total production capacity of methyl ethyl ketone will reach 260000 tons. The average price in the second quarter of 2021 was 8446.70 yuan / ton, up 11.02% from the previous month. The average price in August 21 was 9598.08 yuan / ton. In the third quarter, as the company's 100000 t / a methyl ethyl ketone plant is routinely overhauled for 35 days, we expect the price of methyl ethyl ketone to rise further.
The expansion of leading production is accelerated, and the industrial chain is constantly extended.
In order to further consolidate its position in the C4 industry chain, the company plans to continue to expand its production capacity of 80,000 tons / year of methyl ethyl ketone and 200,000 tons / year of maleic anhydride in the future. after the completion of production expansion, the company's production capacity of methyl ethyl ketone / maleic anhydride will reach 26,400,000 tons / year. In addition, in order to achieve a smooth extension from C 4 to C 3 industry, in order to form a relatively perfect C 3 industry chain layout of propane-propylene oxide-propylene oxide, the company invested in the construction of 700,000 tons / year propane dehydrogenation project in April 2019, the construction period is expected to be 24 months; in August 2019, the investment in the construction of 300,000 tons / year propylene oxide project is expected to be 24 months. At present, the order of the main key equipment of the 700,000 t / a propane dehydrogenation (PDH) project has been basically completed, and the on-site construction is in progress as planned; the 300,000 t / an epoxy propane project has completed the formalities of project establishment, energy assessment and environmental assessment, and the on-site construction has entered the stage of land formation. The company also plans to invest 200,000 tons / year isononanol project in April 2020, with a construction period of 2 years. At present, the isonyl alcohol project has been completed, and the work of energy assessment, environmental assessment and safety assessment is progressing steadily. The company continues to make efforts on more than C3 and C4 products, and we are optimistic that a number of projects will bring new growth to the company after they are put into production in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is the leader of the C4 industrial chain, and its net profit in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 31.84,35.28 and 3.964 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE9/8/7 times, given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; environmental protection risk; production safety risk; business risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk.