OPEC+ will meet today for the first time since July, and delegates expect the organization to stick to its plan to increase production.

Given that crude oil prices have largely recovered their losses in mid-August and the relatively tight supply outlook for the rest of the year, there is little reason for the group to change its plan to gradually increase supply every month. Delegates, who spoke on condition of anonymity, expected ministers to approve an increase of 400000 barrels a day in October when they held an online meeting on Wednesday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, are reversing the sharp cuts in production last year at the height of the Covid-19 crisis. About 45 per cent of the idle supply is now back online, and the group developed a plan in July to gradually restore the rest by September 2022.

That timetable was questioned at a time when the summer epidemic once again threatened demand in China and the United States and oil market volatility. But fuel consumption has proved strong, and OPEC watchers say the group has room to increase production.

"the most likely outcome is to stick to the original plan," said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at King's Capital Markets. "although the number of Covid cases remains high and the movement of people in some key areas is restricted, the market is relatively healthy" so that OPEC+ may increase production as planned.