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申昊科技(300853)2021年中报点评:短期受招标进度影响 全年仍处高景气周期

Shen Hao Technology (300853) 2021 Interim Report Review: Influenced by the bidding schedule in the short term, it is still in a high boom cycle throughout the year

中信證券 ·  Aug 31, 2021 00:00

In the first half of 2021, the company realized income of 250 million yuan, + 22.9% compared with the same period last year; realized net profit of 42 million yuan,-6.8%; and deducted non-return net profit of 39 million yuan,-4.8% of the same period last year. The lower-than-expected results were mainly due to the tendering of downstream power grid customers in the second half of this year. We believe that the first half of the year is the off-season of the industry, and changes in the progress of individual orders will have a significant impact on performance. From the perspective of the whole year, the company still benefits from the development trend from inside to outside the province, from inspection to operation, and from power grid to rail transit. We maintain the target price of 55 yuan and maintain the "buy" rating.

Bidding for electric robots is concentrated in the second half of the year, and the performance is under pressure in the first half of the year. 21H1, (1) Intelligent Robot Business:

The income is 78 million yuan,-53.5% compared with the same period last year. The reason for the decline in business is: 1. The company received orders for electric robots in the second quarter of last year, but this year's tenders for customers' orders are mainly in the second half of the year. two。 The company's epidemic prevention robot business contributed tens of millions of yuan in revenue in the first half of last year, but there was no such business in the first half of this year. (2) Intelligent power monitoring and control equipment business: revenue of 170 million yuan, year-on-year + 394.5%. 20H1's income from this business is only 34 million yuan, which is from a small base.

Gross profit margin remains at a high level, and the consolidation of new buildings affects the cost rate. (1) Gross profit margin: 21H1, by product, the gross profit margin of intelligent robot business is 65.9%, year-on-year + 5.7pcts. Compared with the same period last year, the gross profit margin of intelligent power monitoring and control equipment business was 52.1%, year-on-year + 14.1pcts. Due to the decline in the proportion of intelligent robot business with higher gross profit margin in the first half of the year, the overall gross profit margin was 56%, which was basically the same as the same period last year. (2) expense rate: 21H1, the company's sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 12.4%, 13.1%, 15.4%, 1.0%, year-on-year + 1.1/+4.3/+1.6/-1.1pcts. The increase in the rate of management expenses is mainly due to the depreciation caused by the conversion of the company's new buildings.

Outlook: from inside to outside the province, from inspection to operation, from power grid to rail transit, the company is still in a period of high prosperity for the whole year. (1) compete for the national market from within the province to outside the province. In 2020, the proportion of the company's income from outside the province increased to 40.2%. The rapid increase in the proportion of income outside the province is mainly due to the increase in the business volume of the company's inspection robots and intelligent monitoring equipment in Jiangsu, Hubei and other markets. We infer that 21H1 accounts for about 50% of non-provincial revenue. (2) from inspection to operation, the product value is increased. The company launched the first switch room switching operation robot in China, which has the functions of trackless navigation and independent mapping, intelligent image recognition and analysis of the inspection robot, and can also complete the emergency opening operation and conventional switching operation of the switchgear. The price of the robot is significantly higher than the previous price of 30-400000 yuan for indoor inspection robots. (3) from power grid to rail transit, the growth space is doubled. In 2020, the company launched the rail transit line inspection robot and the train bottom inspection robot. At present, the products have entered the trial stage of the main customers. The China Daily mentioned that according to CCTV news, the Hangzhou-Haihai intercity railway has adopted the company's rail transit-related products. We expect that a small number of rail robot orders will be landed this year, and will gradually realize the large-scale landing of the order next year. According to our estimation, the market space of rail transit robot is about 20 billion yuan, and the company's rail transit line inspection robot has the advantage of "six in one" and is in a leading position in the market competition.

Risk factors: 1. The penetration rate of electric power inspection and operation robot slows down; 2. The intensification of competition in the industry leads to a decline in product prices, which may put pressure on the company's gross profit margin. The rail transit robot business is advancing at a slower speed than expected.

Investment suggestion: maintain the company's annual homing net profit forecast of 2.3 million yuan in 2021-22-23, and the current share price corresponding to PE is multiple of 23-16-12. It is expected that the company's homing net profit will grow by 39.4% in the next three years. Combined with the valuation of the robot industry, the company will be valued at 35 times PE in 2021, maintaining the target price of 55 yuan and maintaining the "buy" rating.

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