2021H1, affected by the impact of community group buying and last year's high base, the company's supermarket is under great pressure from the same store; the department store is recovering well. The company continues to promote the digital construction of users, operations and supply chain. In the future, with the increase in the proportion of mature stores, the improvement of digital level and the efficiency of supply chain, the fundamentals of the company are expected to improve, and the net interest rate is expected to rise to the historical average (2%).
Revenue declined compared with the same period last year, and investment income contributed 480 million of profits. 2021H1, the company realized operating income / attribution net profit of 7.31 billion / 210 million yuan, compared with the same period last year. The decline in operating income mainly resulted from the normalization of epidemic prevention and control and the impact of community group buying on supermarket income. The increase in attribution net profit was mainly due to the investment income of 480 million yuan achieved by the completion of the issuance of the company's asset securitization project during the reporting period. 2021H1, the company realized the deduction of non-vested net profit / operating cash flow-130 million / 1.63 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year. The decline in non-vested net profit was mainly due to the high cost of cultivating new stores and the negative impact of the new lease criteria.
2021Q1/2021Q2 achieved operating income of 4.24 billion / 3.07 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the company was 100 million / 100 million yuan, which was + 3.3% and 58.3% respectively, compared with the same period last year.
The format of department stores has resumed and the speed of supermarket exhibition stores has slowed down. 2021H1, the company's main business income is 6.17 billion yuan, of which the operating income of supermarkets / department stores / home appliances is 56.6 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. 14.7%, 25.4%, 94.7%. 2021H1, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin + 2.29pcts to 29.98%, the main business (wholesale and retail) gross profit margin year-on-year-0.41pct to 19.30%, of which the supermarket / department store gross profit margin is-2.52pcts/-0.37pct to 15.89% plus 75.49% The expense rate during the period is from + 6.09pcts to 31.43% compared with the same period last year, of which the sales / management expense rate is from + 4.19pcts/+0.35pct to 25.22% and 2.65% respectively, mainly due to the decline in revenue and the rigidity of some fees. Exhibition stores: 2021H1 opened 15 new supermarket stores (2020H1:17) and closed 15 stores (operating poorly or due); as of 2021-6-30, the company had 417 stores, of which there were 48supermarkets / department stores and 267max in Hunan province / outside Hunan province.
The digital ability is outstanding, and the GMV of the home business remains high. Digitalization: the company's digital ability has been further improved, with 27.71 million digital members in the reporting period, accounting for 71.5% of the total sales; fully flexible employment, the number of users of the Xiaobu Leye employment platform exceeds 130000, with an average daily increase of 609; to home business: 2021H1, the company's online GMV30.4 billion yuan (VS 2020H1:33.5 billion yuan) As of 2021-6-30, the company has 371 stores (including 371 Better stores, 234 JD.com stores, 325 ele.me stores, 260 Meituan stores and 6 multi-point stores), 371 self-service cashier stores and 374 stores covered by the community.
Risk factors: the decline of consumer demand; the progress of new store expansion is not up to expectations; the competition in the industry is intensified.
Investment suggestion: taking into account the intensification of industry competition brought about by the new income criteria and community group buying, the business income forecast for 2021-23 is 14.71 billion / 15.42 billion / 15.93 billion yuan (the original forecast is 16.44 billion / 17.23 billion / 17.92 billion yuan) At the same time, considering the negative impact of the new leasing criteria on the company's profits, the vested net profit for 2021-23 is estimated to be 110 million / 130 million / 170 million yuan (the original forecast is 140 million / 190 million / 250 million yuan), and the corresponding EPS for 2021-23 is 0.13amp 0.15lap 0.19 yuan respectively. Taking into account the valuation of comparable companies in the industry and the gradual improvement of the company's net interest rate, the company is given 66x PE in 2021, corresponding to the target price of 8.50 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
