Events:
The company released its semi-annual report for 2021: in the first half of 2021, the company achieved operating income of 280 million yuan, down 27.45% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 39 million yuan, down 45.8% from the same period last year; and net profit after deducting non-return was 35 million yuan, down 49.29% from the same period last year.
Investment Summary:
Affected by the lack of core downstream, the parts business is under short-term pressure. In the first half of 2021, there was a worldwide shortage of automotive chips, which led to a decline in production in the company's downstream car factories and a reduction in demand for parts. as a result, the sales of the company's auto parts business decreased: in the first half of 2021, 983100 fuel dispensers were sold in the auto parts business, 755600 fuel pipes and 1.354 million cooling water pipes, down 21.1%, 22.1% and 13.3% respectively from the same period last year. As the decline in production led to an increase in fixed costs corresponding to unit income, resulting in a decline in the overall gross profit margin, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin in the first half of 2021 was 29.83%, down 4.97 pct from the same period last year; and the net profit rate was 14.49%, down 6.83pct from the same period last year.
The adverse impact of the epidemic situation of automation business has been gradually cleared, and the order has shown a trend of improvement. The production cycle of business order for automation equipment is relatively long, which takes an average of 8-10 months from order signing to revenue confirmation. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in the first half of 2020, the investment in fixed assets of the whole automobile industry chain decreased sharply during the epidemic. It was not until the second half of 2020 that it improved with the relief of the epidemic, and the prosperity of the industry continued to rise. fixed asset investment began to recover gradually. In 2020, the company signed a new order of 287 million yuan for the business of flexible automation intelligent equipment and industrial robot systems, slightly less than 305 million yuan in 2019.
In the first half of 2021, the company signed a new order of 255 million yuan for the business of flexible automation intelligent equipment and industrial robot systems, an increase of 85% over the same period last year. The transformation of the order improvement into an increase in output value is expected to be gradually reflected in the second half of this year.
The order quantity of carbon dioxide high pressure pipe is waiting to be released. The company sees that carbon dioxide heat pump air conditioning is the technical trend of thermal management of new energy vehicles in the future. through the subsidiary Shanghai Zhongyuan, it has set up a research and development team of carbon dioxide heat pump air conditioning pipeline system, and successfully developed carbon dioxide air conditioning pipe products. The product can solve the problem of carbon dioxide leakage caused by defects in the current carbon dioxide heat pump air conditioning pipeline system, and has successfully passed the Volkswagen MEB experiment. It has now entered the supply phase, and it is expected that with the climbing capacity of MEB production, the product is expected to greatly improve the company's profitability in the future and become the fourth largest support for the parts business.
Investment advice:
We estimate that the operating income of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 816 million yuan, 1.07 billion yuan and 1.336 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is 133 million yuan, 177 million yuan and 232 million yuan respectively, and the earnings per share are 0.51,0.68 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 54.13,40.75 and 31.03 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
1) the risk of the impact of macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations; 2) the risk of intensified competition in the industry; 3) the risk of downstream chip shortage; and 4) the lower-than-expected risk of payback.