The company released its semi-annual report for 2021: revenue in the first half of 2021 was 17.173 billion yuan, an increase of 26.27% over the same period last year; net profit from home was 2.021 billion yuan, up 291.44% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 1.965 billion yuan, an increase of 2794.31% over the same period last year. Basic earnings per share is 0.60 yuan. The performance is located at the center of the forecast and is in line with expectations.
Guoyuan's point of view:
Q2 declined due to the off-season demand, and the scale of financial leasing reduced 21H1's paper production of 2.83 million tons (+ 2.91%) and sales of 2.58 million tons (+ 4.45%). Thanks to the magnificent demeanor of the paper industry, it realized revenue of 17.143 billion yuan (+ 26.27%) and net profit of 2.021 billion yuan (+ 291.44%). In a single quarter, Q2 achieved revenue of 6.967 billion yuan, an increase of 7.28% over the same period last year, down 31.69% from a month earlier, and its net profit was 842 million yuan, an increase of 168.56% over the same period last year, down 28.58% from a month earlier. From the perspective of papermaking business, the market share of cultural paper / white cardboard / coated paper maintained the first / second place, and revenue of white cardboard / a pair of adhesive tape / coated paper / anti-adhesive base paper realized revenue of 50.31 picks 37.29pm 24.08 / 572 million yuan, up 57.79%, 19.06%, 34.42%, 19.09%, and revenue from electrostatic paper / household paper fell 1.53%, 11.64% to 1.840 billion yuan. In addition, the company continues to reduce the scale of financial leasing business, achieving income of 206 million yuan (- 60.61%), accounting for 1.2% of total revenue (- 2.65pcts), with a net recovery of 616 million yuan.
The high boom in papermaking promotes the increase in gross profit margin, and the high financial expense rate continues to optimize the 21H1 industry. The high demeanor of the industry promotes the rise in volume and price of papermaking business. The gross profit margin of white cardboard / a pair of adhesive tape / coated paper / electrostatic paper is 45.06%, 24.46%, 36.67%, 23.66% respectively. According to a comparable caliber, the company's overall gross profit margin increased to 30.93% year-on-year, with Q1/Q2 gross profit margin of 29.08% and 33.64% respectively. In terms of the period expense rate, the sales expense rate / management expense rate decreased by 0.30/0.75pcts to 0.86% to 2.87% compared with the same period last year, and the R & D expense rate increased by 0.38pcts to 4.41% compared with the same period last year.
The reduction of the scale of financial leasing has achieved remarkable results, and the proportion of interest expenses in total revenue has dropped from 2.44pcts to 8.15% compared with the same period last year. The financial expense rate of 2019swap 2020shock 21H1 is 9.59% and 8.34% respectively. The company is expected to continue to optimize financial expenses by optimizing financing channels. As of 21H1, the book balance of financial leases is 8.805 billion yuan, which is expected to shrink to 7 billion yuan by the end of 2021, the company's liabilities are down 12.94% from the same period last year, and the asset-liability structure continues to be optimized.
Pulp and paper integration strategy further, the second half of the paper price pick-up performance growth to support the company's business strategy of reducing financial leasing steadily, focusing on the main industry of deep ploughing paper. The company accelerates the strategy of pulp-paper integration, continuously improves the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp to strengthen the cost-end advantage, and its own cycle attribute may be gradually weakened. By the end of 21H1, the company's wood pulp / paper production capacity has reached 430x6.7 million tons, and Huanggang Chenming Phase II project has started construction. Upon completion, it is estimated that an additional paper production capacity of 1.5 million tons per year (cultural paper, white cardboard), as well as a mechanical pulp production capacity of 520,000 tons / year, will consolidate the company's leading position in pulp and paper. Looking forward to the second half of the year, it is expected that the price of white cardboard will hit bottom and pick up, the peak season of cultural paper consumption is approaching, the superimposed pulp price may remain high and firm, and the level of ton earnings is expected to improve month-on-month.
Investment advice and profit Forecast
The scale of financial leasing business has been reduced, the asset structure has been optimized, and the cost-side efficiency has been continuously improved. The company is the leader of pulp-paper integration, the pace of capacity expansion is clear, and the medium-and long-term market share is expected to increase steadily. According to the pulp and paper price trend, we downgrade the profit forecast, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 364.31max 375.92max in 2021-2023, net profit of 39.71max 40.91max 4.1707m, EPS 1.33max 1.37max 1.38, corresponding to PE 6.0pm 5.85.8 times, maintaining the "holding increase" rating.
Risk hint
Raw material prices fluctuated sharply, demand growth fell short of expectations, and the progress of new production capacity was lower than expected.