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克来机电(603960):缺芯影响持续 新签订单有望逐步放量

Kelai Mechatronics (603960): the impact of core shortage is expected to gradually increase the volume of newly signed orders.

海通證券 ·  Aug 31, 2021 00:00

The company's performance declined in the first half of the year under the influence of unfavorable factors such as chip shortage. In the first half of 2021, the company realized revenue of 280 million yuan,-27.45% of the same period last year, and net profit of 39 million yuan,-45.8% of the same period last year. Gross profit margin 29.83%, year-on-year-4.97pct, net profit 13.76%, year-on-year-4.66pct, the company's revenue and return net profit declined significantly. We judged that the decline in revenue was mainly due to the decline in customer production in the downstream mainframe factory in the first half of the year due to the shortage of chips. At the same time, the rise in raw material prices and other factors adversely affected the company's gross profit margin.

Problems such as lack of cores in the industry continued to disturb the company's performance in the second quarter. 2021Q2 achieved revenue of 147 million yuan, year-on-year-32.68%, month-on-month + 9.81%, return-home net profit of 16 million yuan, year-on-year-62.78%, month-on-month-31.2%; gross profit 28.08%, month-on-month-3.67pct, net profit 10.72%, month-on-6.39pct. We judge that there is no significant improvement in the shortage of chips in the automotive industry in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, which continues to cause trouble to the company's downstream customers.

With the relief of core shortage and the gradual expansion of newly signed orders, the company's business is expected to stabilize. In terms of products, the company's auto parts business achieved revenue of 153 million yuan, year-on-year-25.3%, and net profit of 19 million yuan, of which 983100 fuel distributors, 755600 fuel pipes and 1.354 million cooling water pipes were sold. The decline in revenue is mainly affected by the lack of core in the industry. We judge that with the relief of this problem in the second half of the year, the company's auto parts business is expected to stabilize. The revenue of the automatic production line business reached 127 million yuan,-58.1% compared with the same period last year. We judge that the decline in the automatic production line business is mainly due to the relatively long production cycle of automation products, and the newly signed orders since the second half of 2020 have not yet been converted into an increase in output value. considering that the company has gradually resumed its newly signed orders since the second half of 2020, it has signed 255 million yuan in the first half of 2021, an increase of 85% over the same period last year. We judge that the company's automated production line business is expected to start to expand in the second half of the year.

Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the company's homing net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.56 million yuan 2.40 trillion yuan, respectively, and the EPS will be 0.60 yuan 0.92 yuan 1.31 yuan respectively, referring to the valuation level of the comparable company. At the same time, considering the short-term adverse impact on the company's profitability caused by the shortage of chips in the industry and the rise in raw material prices in 2021, and the company's automation business is expected to stabilize and pick up in the second half of the year, giving it 34-38 times PE in 2022. The corresponding reasonable value range is 31.28-34.96 yuan, maintaining the "better than the market" rating.

Risk tips. The problem of core shortage in the automobile industry is not as expected; the production and sales of important customers are not as expected; the volume of new products is not as expected; and the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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