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港股开市掘金(08.31) | 天然气消费稳步持续增长 越南疫情订单有望转移中国

Hong Kong stocks open Nuggets (08.31) | Natural gas consumption continues to grow steadily. Vietnam epidemic orders are expected to be transferred to China.

智通財經 ·  Aug 31, 2021 07:48

Wen / Wan Yongqiang (Director of Zhitong Financial Research Center)

[Jinri Toutiao]

1. Under the vision of "net zero emission", the global energy system is facing restructuring and comprehensive and deep transformation. Natural gas is regarded as an important bridge for the conversion from highly polluting fossil energy to new energy. International experience shows that in some countries where carbon peak has been achieved, the proportion of natural gas use is relatively high. The scale of natural gas power generation in some countries has exceeded that of coal-fired power generation.

According to the recently released bp World Energy Statistical Yearbook, the share of natural gas in global primary energy continues to rise to an all-time high of 24.7% in 2020. However, in China, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, natural gas accounted for only 8.4% of the total domestic energy consumption, about 1/3 of the world, and there will still be considerable room for improvement in the future.

According to the China Natural Gas Development report (2021) (hereinafter referred to as "the report") jointly issued by the State Energy Administration, the Development Research Center of the State Council and the Ministry of Natural Resources, through reasonable guidance and market construction, China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach 430 billion-450 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 550 billion-600 billion cubic meters in 2030. Compared with 328 billion cubic meters in 2020, the highest growth rates were 37 per cent and 83 per cent respectively. Since then, natural gas consumption has increased steadily and sustainably, and has entered a development platform around 2040. This means that the basic situation of the coordinated and stable development of natural gas in China will not change in the next 20 years.

Comments:To support the continuous expansion of the scale of natural gas consumption in China, there are still many positive and positive factors, no matter at the level of system and mechanism, or at the level of market demand. In the future, the work of "replacing coal with gas" will continue to advance steadily, and there is still a considerable incremental market in the northern rural areas. In the short term, Hurricane Ida hit the southern United States on the 29th, bringing great disasters to Louisiana and Mississippi. Louisiana accounts for 19% of America's natural gas reserves. Natural gas production ranks second in the United States and is expected to fluctuate natural gas prices. Related varieties: Ganghua Gas (01083), Kunlun Energy (00135), ENN Energy (02688), Hong Kong And China Gas (00003).

2. According to the latest news from the Ministry of Health of Vietnam on the evening of August 29, there have been 12663 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Vietnam in the past 24 hours, including 12619 cases of local infection and 44 cases of imported cases. As of July 29, local time, there were 7594 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Vietnam, including 1 imported case and 7593 local cases. Ho Chi Minh City had the most cases, with 4592 new cases on the same day. At present, Ho Chi Minh City has more than 50% of confirmed cases and 80% of deaths. Ho Chi Minh City has become the epicenter of the epidemic in Vietnam.

Comments:Vietnam is the world's third largest footwear producer after China and India, and the export of clothing products can also rank among the top five in the world. More than 50 per cent of Nike Inc's shoes are made in Vietnam, while nearly 30 per cent of Adidas's products come from Vietnam. Alphabet Inc-CL C's Pixel 6 smartphone series, which cannot be supported by Vietnam, will eventually have to continue production in China. Apple Inc also planned to transfer some of the production lines of MacBook and iPad to Vietnam, but now has to stay in China. At present, at least three Nike Inc suppliers in Vietnam have stopped production; more than 70, 000 factories have closed down and foreign investment is likely to leave completely if the isolators continue to be extended. A large number of orders are being or will be transferred to China. The related beneficiary varieties are Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331), Tebu International (01368) and Anta (02020). .

[general trend study]

Stimulated by Powell's partial speech, the Hang Seng Index continued to rebound. However, the overall trend is not smooth, mainly due to continued favorable bad news: for example, for the brokerage industry, "two financing", "high stock price manipulation risk" and so on to the strong supervision. The high-ranking variety Oriental Securities (03958) was greatly affected. As a popular sector, securities firms are a bit of a drag. In addition, Vanke (02202) poor performance, related real estate and banks are affected.

Several major sectors of the market fermentation are basically mentioned, such as the lithium battery Ganfeng Lithium (01772) mentioned in the headlines, and other periodic products such as aluminum, copper, steel and so on. Photovoltaic performance is also started across the line, led by Flat Glass Group (06865) and Xinyi Solar (00968). The medium-term net profit of AVIC (02357) in military industry increased by 39.74% to 1.199 billion.

The market continues to follow the trend, and the internal structure is divided again. It is expected that oil and natural gas will be stimulated by the news, and the textile and clothing category is expected to benefit from the transfer of orders from Vietnam.

[hot plate analysis]

The State Press and publication Administration issued a notice on further strict management to effectively prevent minors from indulging in online games, and further stringent management measures to solve the problem of minors overusing or even indulging in online games, resolutely prevent minors from indulging in online games, and earnestly protect their physical and mental health.

The notice requires that the time for providing online game services to minors is strictly restricted, and all online game enterprises can only provide one hour service to minors from 20:00 to 21:00 every day on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays and legal holidays. Online game services are not allowed to be provided to minors in any form at any other time. Strictly implement the requirements for real-name registration and login of online game users' accounts, and shall not provide game services to users who have not registered and logged in their real names in any form; publication management departments at all levels should strengthen supervision and inspection on the implementation of relevant measures to prevent minors from indulging in online games, and seriously deal with online game enterprises that have not been strictly implemented in accordance with the rules and regulations.

The circular pointed out that it is necessary to actively guide families, schools, and other social sectors to jointly manage and manage together, fulfill the responsibility of guardianship of minors according to law, and create a good environment for the healthy growth of minors.

Comments:According to the most popular "Arena of Valor", according to Tencent's 2020 annual report, the contribution of minors is only 6% of Tencent's online games in China, accounting for only 3.2% under the age of 16. Therefore, the overall impact is relatively small. Tencent (00700) responded to the Observer Network that Tencent has continued to explore and apply new technologies and functions around the protection of minors since 2017. Next, based on the latest requirements of the competent authorities, Tencent will strictly abide by them and actively implement them. Heartbeat Company (02400): according to the relevant requirements of the notice, the company will actively implement and strictly implement the policy in all aspects of research and development, operation and customer service. NetEase, Inc (09999): according to the latest notice and requirements of the State Press and publication Administration, NetEase, Inc's game will be strictly observed and actively implemented. Middle-hand Games (00302): make sure that all its games are set up with real name authentication and anti-addiction system in accordance with the latest policy of the plate office. Bilibili Inc. (09626): the platform's underage civil air defense addiction system will be adjusted before 23:00 on August 31.

[announcement highlights]

1. Zitong Financial App News, Guangzhou Automobile Group announced that the company achieved operating income of about 34.318 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of about 34.90% over the same period last year, and a net profit of about 4.337 billion yuan, an increase of about 87.07% over the same period last year. It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders. Guangzhou Automobile Group expects that the global shortage of automotive chips will continue in the second half of the year.

Comments:Guangzhou Automobile Group has R & D, complete vehicles (cars, motorcycles), spare parts, business services, finance, travel and other businesses, which constitute a complete closed loop of the automobile industry chain. GAC Toyota and Honda continue to maintain high profitability. In terms of independent brands, GAC Ean production and sales continue to maintain a trend of rapid growth. GAC MOTOR has achieved positive sales growth for 12 consecutive months compared with the same period last year, and it is worth looking forward to the transformation to intelligence. In addition, Guangzhou Automobile Group announced that in the light of the overall situation of the development of GAC Ean, a wholly-owned subsidiary, it intends to promote the mixed ownership reform of GAC Ean through the reorganization and integration of new energy vehicle R & D capabilities and business and assets. increase its capital and shares and introduce strategic investors. GAC Ean will remain a controlling subsidiary of the company. In the future, GAC will make full use of the capital market and actively seek listing at the right time.

2. Zitong Financial App News, COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) announced interim results for 2021, with operating income of about 139.264 billion yuan, an increase of 88.06% over the same period last year; net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 37.098 billion yuan, up 31.62 times over the same period last year; net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 37.02 billion yuan, up 40.96 times over the same period last year; basic earnings per share was 2.33 yuan.

Comments:This performance looks eye-catching, but the company's undistributed profit is-11 billion unfilled, so it is not possible to achieve dividends, and it is expected that the data for the third quarter will continue to grow.

3. Zitong Financial App News, Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) issued an announcement that in the six months ended June 30, 2021, the group achieved operating income of 1.157 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 83.1% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company was 231 million yuan, while the net loss attributed to the shareholders of the company in the same period last year was 62.3 million yuan, and the basic income per share was 0.104 yuan.

According to the announcement, the group's consolidated operating performance increased significantly during the period, mainly due to sales of about 5879 tons of electrolytic nickel during the period, an increase of about 51.9% compared with 3870 tons in the same period last year. The average sales prices of electrolytic nickel and cathode copper were about 120055 yuan and 59938 yuan per ton during the period, up about 33.5% and 57.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The financial expense during the period is about 37.7 million yuan, which is about 12.4 million yuan less than that of 50.1 million yuan in the same period last year.

Comments:The company turned from loss to profit, mainly due to the increase in product prices and output. And the company's financial expenses are falling. The rise in the price of electrolytic nickel is expected to rise further as the United States continues to ease policy in the second half of the year. At the same time, the company has completed the technical transformation project, and the utilization rate of production capacity will be improved. In addition, the H-share value-added right incentive plan has been approved by SASAC in principle, which can promote the stock price.

Statement: all the analyses in this column are for sharing and communication only, and do not constitute suggestions for the sale and sale of specific securities, and do not represent the interests of any organization. At the same time, there may be biased views, for reference only. Readers should carefully consider whether the analysis in this article is in line with their own situation, make their own investment decisions and bear their own investment risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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