Event: the company's 2021H1 operating income is 280 million yuan, year-on-year-27.45%, net profit is 39 million yuan, year-on-year-45.80%, non-return net profit is 35 million yuan, year-on-year-49.29%.
Main points of investment
The automatic business order inflection point has appeared, the auto parts business is affected by the lack of core, the company's 2021H1 operating income is 280 million yuan,-27.45% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 39 million yuan,-45.80% compared with the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return is 35 million yuan,-49.29% compared with the same period last year. The decline in performance is mainly caused by the fact that new orders in the automation business have not yet been converted into output value + depressed downstream demand in the auto parts business. 1) Automation business: the newly signed order for 2021H1 is 255 million yuan, which is + 85% compared with the same period last year. However, due to the relatively long production cycle of this business, the improvement of the order has not yet been translated into an increase in output value, which does not give a big boost to 2021H1 revenue, but we expect it to be at the bottom of the performance at present. 2) Auto parts business: the lack of core in 2021H1 continues to lead to a decline in the production of downstream vehicle factories, and the company's auto parts business sales and profit margins have declined. 2021H1, the sales volume of fuel distributor / fuel pipe / cooling water hard pipe of the company is respectively 98.31 million, which is-21.14%, 22.09% and 13.27%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. It is expected to recover with the recovery of the automobile plate.
Profitability maintains a normal range, and product research and development advances steadily.
2021H1, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin of 29.83%, year-on-year-4.97pct, net profit rate of 14.49%, year-on-year-6.83pct, all declined but remained in a relatively normal range. With the recovery of future production and sales, the scale effect will make the gross profit margin pick up. The expense rate during the company's 2021H1 is 15.29%, which is + 4.48pct compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sales expense rate is 1.37%, year-on-year + 0.57pct; management expense rate (including R & D) 15.09%, year-on-year + 4.18pct; financial expense rate-1.17%, year-on-year-0.27pct.
The company's 2021H1 R & D expenditure is 22 million yuan, and the R & D expense rate is 7.97%, which is + 2.41pct compared with the same period last year. The decline in short-term income did not affect the company's R & D process. In 2021, the company's main R & D products, national 6b automobile engine EA888 high-pressure fuel distribution pipe, new energy vehicle carbon dioxide air conditioning system related parts and components, will inject new impetus into the company's automation and auto parts business growth.
Carbon dioxide pipeline + valve open growth space, long-term benefit from the electric vehicle industry chain development of carbon dioxide thermal management system and "carbon neutralization" strategy, permeability is expected to continue to improve.
At present, Volkswagen ID6 and Audi E-tron S are standard models for carbon dioxide heat pump air conditioners, driven by the inherent advantages of carbon neutral + carbon dioxide thermal management system + head enterprise demonstration effect, we expect that more vehicle brands will be equipped with carbon dioxide thermal management system in the future.
Carbon dioxide refrigerant conduit has been certified by Volkswagen MEB, waiting for future release. The company's carbon dioxide refrigerant conduit has passed Volkswagen MEB certification and entered the pre-batch supply stage. The company is the exclusive supplier of Volkswagen ID6, and will continue to expand the brand and regional two-dimensional layout in the future. The company is also actively expanding the valve products in the carbon dioxide thermal management system, which is currently in the sample delivery and experimental stage to further expand the market space.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the low output of downstream customers due to the shortage of semiconductor chips in 2021, we adjusted the company's 2021-2023 net profit to 0.97 (down 39%) / 2.12% (down 13%) / 332 million (down 5%) from 160pm to 2023x. The current stock price corresponds to a dynamic PE of 81p / 3723x. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: new business development is not as expected; investment in downstream automobile industry is not as expected