Steadily increase and strengthen long-term competitiveness and maintain the rating of "increasing holdings"
Golden Ham plans to raise funds to build digital intelligent meat products industrial base, three-dimensional cold storage and other projects. At present, the company has formed a strong internal synergy operation model, such as customized brand meat, ham, characteristic meat products, vegetable meat and so on.
Due to the decline in pig prices more than expected, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021-2022 and added the profit forecast for 2023. It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.1,1.6 and 230 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.11,0.16,0.23 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 49.0,33.0,23.0 times of PE. With the release of production capacity, improved channel layout and diversified consumption scenarios, the company is still in a period of rapid development, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The growth of ham and ham products is good.
(1) from the perspective of sub-products: revenue of 2021H1 ham increased by 43.3% to 110 million yuan compared with the same period last year; traditional meat products decreased by 0.49% year-on-year to 43.21 million yuan; and brand meat dropped by 23.2% year-on-year to 120 million yuan. Ham and ham products grew better; brand meat declined due to a sharp drop in pig prices and a year-on-year decline in tonnage prices. (2) from a sub-channel point of view:
The company's e-commerce business grew steadily, with 2021H1 increasing by 7.8% to 100 million yuan; hotel catering, KA circulation and food processing channels grew rapidly, up 54.1%, 50.9% and 61.6% respectively over the same period last year; and direct marketing (group buying) channels decreased by 37% compared with the same period last year. Looking ahead to 2021H2, pig prices are expected to pick up and brand meat business may improve.
The decrease in net interest rate is mainly due to the increase in the rate of sales expenses.
2021Q2's net interest rate fell 6.4pct to 5.8%, mainly due to higher sales expenses. 2021Q2 gross profit margin increased by 1.3pct to 23.6%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of high gross profit products such as ham and ham products. The rate of sales expenses increased to 11.3%, mainly due to the company's introduction of new products such as hot pot and ham, increasing fees to promote new products.
The rate of management expenses was increased to 4.7% by 1.7pct, mainly due to the increase in the salary of employees. Looking forward to 2021H2, the gross profit margin of brand meat may be improved under the rebound of pig prices, and the rate is expected to remain high during the new product promotion period.
The release of production capacity and omni-channel layout will help the company to grow rapidly.
The company plans to raise 1.19 billion yuan to build a digital intelligent industrial base for meat products with an annual output of 50,000 tons, digital intelligent three-dimensional cold storage and other projects. The company focuses on the main business of meat products, has strong internal synergy, and is expected to enhance its core competitiveness. With the release of production capacity, cold storage and channel construction to further improve, the company has great potential for development.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion is not as expected, raw material price fluctuation risk and so on.