1H21 homing net profit + 52% compared with the same period last year
The company released its 2021 first half results report on August 27, 2021. The company's 1H21 operating income is 78.6 billion yuan, + 14% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 3.27 billion yuan, + 52% compared with the same period last year. We believe that the company's 1H21 operating results are relatively strong, mainly due to the growth of domestic commercial vehicle demand and the low base in the same period last year. We estimate that the company's 2021 / 2022 / 2023 EPS will be 0.90 / 1.00 / 1.05. The average PE of the comparable company's Wind in 2021 is 11.6x. Considering the company's leading position, we give the company a target price of 14.40 yuan based on 16x 2021E PE. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
The switching of diesel vehicles promotes the growth of 1H21 performance.
According to the announcement, 1H21 sold 294000 heavy trucks, + 23% year-on-year, and 45000 light trucks, + 16% year-on-year. The company's operating income is 78.6 billion yuan, + 14% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit is 3.27 billion yuan, + 52% compared with the same period last year. We believe that the upgrading of the national six emission standards for diesel vehicles is the main driver of the company's commercial vehicle sales growth in the first half of the year. 2Q21's operating income is 33.5 billion yuan,-17% year-on-year and-26% month-on-month. The net profit of the parent is 1.48 billion yuan,-25% compared with the same period last year, and-17% compared with the previous year. Gross margin 9.8% (2Q20:
11.9% 1Q21VR 7.7%), with a net interest rate of 4.4% (2Q20VR 4.9% 101Q21VR 4.0%). We believe that the pressure on 2Q21's performance is mainly due to weaker demand for downstream commercial vehicles and higher raw material costs.
Pay attention to the research and development of new products and lead the technological upgrading of the industry
According to the announcement, the company promoted the launch of multi-line products in the first half of the year, covering new energy products and sixth-grade standard products, and improved the product layout. J7 upgrade achieved phased goals to accelerate the construction of leading competitiveness; J6P interior upgrade and JK6 products were successfully put on the market to achieve product strength improvement; light hybrid, J6L medium and heavy full-series, fuel cell whole series completed trial production, calibration, layout and other tasks, smart car products completed light, medium, heavy, passenger full-platform by-line chassis product development. In addition, the company has the international leading diesel engine body thermal efficiency 50% technology; in automobile intelligence, the company independently breaks through the chassis line control, perception, decision-making and other core technologies; in the field of new energy, the company establishes a new energy exclusive calibration model to reduce power consumption by 2-3% for 100 kilometers.
Maintain the "overweight" rating
We continue to be optimistic about the development prospects of the company in the medium and heavy truck industry, and continue to give full play to the advantages of the leading position in the heavy truck industry. In view of the company's strong 1H21 performance, we slightly raised the company's sales forecast for 2021-2023, raised our revenue forecast for 2021-2023 by 16%, 15x14%, and increased the home net profit by 14% to 41.4%, to 46.2 million, 4.83 billion yuan. Comparable company's Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 11.6x (previous value 11x) in 2021. Considering the company's leading position, we give the company a target price of 14.40 yuan (the previous value is 12.48 yuan) based on 16x2021E PE and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: sales of heavy trucks fall short of expectations; profit margins fall short of expectations.
