The study of Guo Mingfu's telegram
Taiyang 2022 camp movement is expected to benefit from both O-RAN and Leo satellite communications two key trends in the network industry, and revenue is expected to begin to increase significantly.
Key trends in network technology in 2022 include O-RAN and Leo satellite communications. with regard to the degree of hardware investment, we believe that if any supplier meets the following three conditions, it is worth paying attention to. Including: 1) orders for both ORAN and Leo satellites, 2) orders for O-RAN and Leo satellites to significantly contribute to revenue and profits in 2022, and 3) benefiting from orders for O-RAN or Leo satellites, profits in 2022 will grow by more than 100% YoY compared with 2021. Our latest survey shows that Taiyang is one of the few suppliers that meet the above three conditions. We predict that Taiyang Camp will begin to have significant YoY growth by the end of "9". If shipments are smooth and there are no serious parts shortage problems, EPS (NTD) in 2021 and 2022 is expected to reach 1.2mur1.7 yuan and 5.5mur6.5 yuan respectively.
O-RAN and Leo satellites are the two main trends of the network industry in 2022, and they are the key infrastructure of the electric equipment industry in the future.
(1) O-RAN is one of the "good" projects for telecom operators to further reduce 5G infrastructure costs.
(2) the frequency gate and low latency of millimeter wave are expected to integrate with future hardware products and provide an innovative messenger experience, but the infrastructure cost of millimeter wave is significantly lower than that of Sub-6 GHz, so we predict that the low-cost advantage of ORAN from 2022 will help operators deploy millimeter wave infrastructure.
two。 We expect that under the promotion of companies such as SpaceX and Apple, shipments of Leo satellite services and related components will grow rapidly in 2022. We believe that Leo satellite communication services have the ability to connect at any time, which is expected to enhance the messenger experience of hardware products (such as aircrafts, IoT and electric vehicles, etc.).
Taiyang's challenge of developing and shipping O-RAN has been gradually overcome, and it is expected that "9Mur10" will begin to ship Dish RU and will make a significant contribution to revenue. Our latest research indicates that Taiyang has won an order for millimeter wave O-RAN array antennas from Kyocera and is expected to complete technical verification in 4Q21-1Q22 and ship in 2022.
Taiyang's development and shipping O-RAN challenges include: 1) DU software, 2) Intermodulation disturbance (Intermodulation interference) of dual Diplexer, and 3) out of stock of Infineon controller.
Taiyang has overcome the above challenges and expects to ship Dish RU in "9mur10". It is estimated that the revenue of 4Q21-1Q22 will grow significantly by 50%. The annual EPS of YoY,2021 is expected to reach 1.2mur1.7 yuan.
Taiyang expects to start shipping the O-RAN RU of Rakuten / NEC and JMA in 2022. Thanks to ORAN orders, Taiyang's EPS is expected to reach 5.5 RMB6.5 in 2022.
Taiyang is expected to start shipping orders for millimeter wave O-RAN array antennas in 2022. We expect Taiyang's millimeter wave O-RAN orders to start growing in 2022 / 2023.
The performance of Leo satellite communications service providers is expected to grow significantly in the next few years. In the hardware supply chain investment opportunities, the focus of investment is on the satellite end and the receiving end because there is no significant upgrade to the smart phone for Leo satellite communications. However, we believe that intelligent "aircraft" and low-orbit satellite services are expected to accelerate the growth of the industry as a whole.
Taiyang's new business focuses on low-orbit satellites, mainly aimed at Internet service providers and non-language service providers.
Among the Internet service providers of the former Leo satellite service, the leading manufacturer is SpaceX, and the estimated number of satellites to be launched is 12000. Other key vendors include Amazon (Kuiper) (expected to launch about 3200 satellites), OneWeb (expected to launch about 7000 satellites) and Kymeta. Taiyang's pre-order mainly comes from OneWeb and Kymeta.
We predict that the contribution of Taiyang Leo satellite industry to revenue and profits will begin to grow significantly in 2023.
Investment advice:
Taiyang 5G O-RAN RU shipments 2H21 strong growth, return to the glory of 20 years ago is not a long way off.
Risk reminder:
The production of new products is delayed or the market demand is not as expected.
Ming-Chi Tech Research
MTI's 2022 growth momentum to benefit from two critical trends of the network industry, O-RAN, and LEO; revenue to boost starting September
From a hardware investment perspective, we believe it is worthwhile for investors to look at suppliers that meet the following three criteria: 1) have orders for both O-RAN and low earth orbit (LEO) satellite, 2) have at least one O-RAN and LEO order that will contribute significantly to revenue and profit in 2022, and 3) benefit from O-RAN or LEO orders that can grow 100% YoY or more in terms of profit in 2022 vs. 2021. Our latest survey indicates that MTI is one of the few suppliers that meet all three criteria. As a result, we forecast that MTI's revenue will grow significantly YoY starting in September. In addition, if shipments go smoothly and there are no serious component shortages, we expect EPS (NTD) to reach $1.2mur1.7 and $5.5mur6.5 in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
O-RAN and LEO are the two major trends in the network industry in 2022, both of which are critical infrastructures for the future of the electronics industry.
1. The key to 5G infrastructure in 2022 will be cost reduction and increased mmWave coverage.
(1) O-RAN is one of the best solutions for operators to further reduce the cost of 5G infrastructure deployment.
(2) The large bandwidth and low latency of mmWave will integrate with future hardware products and provide an innovative user experience. However, the infrastructure cost of mmWave is significantly higher than sub-6 GHz, so we predict that the low-cost advantage of O-RAN will help operators deploy mmWave infrastructure starting in 2022..
We expect LEO services and related component shipments to grow rapidly in 2022, driven by companies such as SpaceX and Apple. We believe that the always-on connectivity of LEO services will enhance the user experience of hardware products (e.g., cell phones, IoT, and EVs).
MTI is now overcoming the challenges of developing and shipping O-RANs and expects to start mass shipments of Dish RUs in September-October with a significant contribution to revenue. Our latest survey indicates that MTI has secured Kyocera's mmWave O-RAN phased array antenna orders and expects to pass technology qualification in 4Q21-1Q22 and start mass shipments in 2022.
MTI's O-RAN development and shipment challenges include: 1) DU software, 2) intermodulation interference of the diplexer, and 3) Infineon controller supply shortage.
MTI has overcome the above challenges and expects to start mass shipments of Dish RU from September to October. We estimate that MTI's monthly revenue will grow significantly by 50m 100% YoY from 4Q21 to 1Q22, thanks to the shipment of Dish RU. We estimate MTI's EPS will reach $1.2 in 1.7 in 2021.
MTI will start mass shipments of Rakuten/NEC and JMA O-RAN RU in 2022. Thanks to O-RAN orders, we predict that MTI's 2022 EPS will reach $5.5mur6.5.
MTI will start shipping the mmWave O-RAN phased array antenna in 2022. We expect MTI's mmWave O-RAN orders to begin growing from 2022 Mel 2023.
We expect that LEO satellite communication service providers will have significant growth in the coming years. Regarding hardware supply chain investment opportunities, as there is no significant upgrade in the specifications of current smartphones supporting LEO satellite communications, the investment focus is on the satellite and the receiver sides. However, we believe that the smartphone support for LEO services will accelerate overall industry growth.
MTI's other new business focus is LEO, mainly targeting internet service providers rather than voice service providers.
Among the current LEO internet service providers, SpaceX is the leading company, with an estimated launch number of 12000 satellites. Other main players include Amazon (Kuiper) (expected to launch around 3200 satellites), OneWeb (expected to launch around 7000 satellites), and Kymeta. MTI's current orders are mainly from OneWeb and Kymeta.
We forecast that MTI's LEO business will contribute significantly to the overall revenue and profit from 2023 onwards.
Stock for actions:
MTI's 2022 growth momentum to benefit from two critical trends of the network industry, O-RAN, and LEO; revenue to boost starting September.
Risk:
New product shipment delays; lower-than-expected demand due to US-China trade war and COVID-19.