Main points of investment:
The performance is in line with expectations and holdings are increased. Considering that the recovery time of outbound travel is not clear, it is expected that in 2022, the price of 2021 EPS will be reduced from-0.31 to 0.04 (- 0.29), EPS will be raised to 0.22 (0.2) yuan in 2023, and the target price will be maintained at 11.30 yuan in 2023.
Performance description: the company's 2021H1 realized operating income of 580 million /-35.3%, net profit loss of 169 million, increased loss of 43.7%, and deducted non-net profit loss of 210 million, increased loss of 69.7%.
Catering is the first to resume, and outbound travel is still waiting for some time. ① benefited from the recovery of domestic aviation and other transportation industries. The revenue of catering business in the first half of the year was 270 million yuan / + 42.7%, which was 51% of that in the same period of 19 years. The gross profit margin also increased by 2.8pcts to 28.2%. The epidemic situation abroad of ② was severe, and outbound travel was still stagnant:
Tourism revenue is 240 million yuan /-65.0%, but the company is actively exploring the domestic travel market, launching red travel, Caesar parent-child camp and other products in the first half of the year. ③ sub-regional point of view, North China (all aviation food business) strong recovery, revenue increased by 194% to 14.53 million yuan, Beijing, Northeast and other regions decreased year on year ④ cash flow: as of 2021H1, the company's book currency fund is 370 million yuan (19H1 is 1.25 billion), and the cash flow of operating activities is-44.91 million yuan.
Focus on tourism internal circulation and Hainan market, duty-free business is advancing steadily. ① has reached strategic cooperation with Sanya City Government, Hainan Rubber and other Hainan enterprises, and will move to Sanya in 2021. It will combine its own resources, capacity and endowment advantages, provide many tourism products, including boutique tours, island health care, vacation tours, and incubate new retail formats such as health drinks. ② shares in the Chinese duty-free shop project in Beijing, sets up a tax-free group in Haikou, introduces Wenyuan equity investment fund, and is expected to participate in the tax-free business in Hainan Island in the future.
Risk hint: the overseas epidemic situation can not be recovered in the medium and long term, and the domestic epidemic situation is at risk again and again.