Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the sales of anti-viral and infectious disease prevention and control drugs such as influenza in the company were affected.
The performance of Q1 fluctuated, with revenue of 251 million yuan, down 23.00% from the same period last year, and net profit of 25 million yuan, down 6.45% from the same period last year. On the one hand, the reason comes from the beginning of the outbreak of the Q1 COVID-19 epidemic in 20 years, the market panicked to buy antiviral drugs, and the company sold a large number of products. On the other hand, because of the repeated epidemic, the sale of cold antiviral drugs was strictly restricted. The company's main products 1.1 new drug paramivir sodium chloride injection sales decline, resulting in performance fluctuations, but with the gradual elimination of the epidemic, long-term recovery is expected.
In line with the development trend of the industry, increase investment in innovative drug research and development. The company announced that it plans to use part of the over-raised funds to invest in the construction of the third phase of the Palamivir production base, which will be changed to "NX-2016" and other five innovative drug projects. This move is better in line with the market development, combined with the current and future industrial development trends.
Among the new drugs developed by the company, NX-2016 is a new generation of influenza-resistant varieties, which blocks viral replication at the front end and has higher inhibition efficiency, and the mutation probability of viral endonuclease is lower, so it is not easy to produce drug-resistant virus strains. The company's innovative pipeline also includes the antineoplastic drug metafenil and the anti-hepatorenal fibrosis drug meflunidone, which is worth looking forward to.
M & A layout innovation McAb, bio-drug pipeline more perfect. The company's merger and acquisition of Xingmeng Biology is in progress, and its target pipeline includes 4 biological innovative drugs and 5 biological similar drugs, covering major disease areas such as infection, tumor, autoimmune disease and so on. The fastest progress is the combined antibody SYN023 for rabies prevention, which is currently in phase IIb/III international multicenter clinical trials, and is expected to become the first humanized anti-rabies combined antibody on the market in the world. With the advance of research and development in the future, innovative pipelines will bring long-term attention.
Financial forecasts and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.41, 2.12, 2.86 yuan respectively, which is comparable to the company's 21-year average valuation of 29 times, giving the company 29 times PE in 21 years, corresponding to a target price of 40.89 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk hint
The risk that innovative drug research and development is not as expected, the risk that the epidemic repeatedly affects sales, and the risk that M & A progress is not as expected.