Pay attention to the production capacity and maintain the rating of "increasing holdings"
1H21, the company achieved revenue of 600 million yuan, an increase of 19.7% over the same period last year, mainly due to the low base impact of the same period last year; the net profit of returning home was 100 million yuan, an increase of 23.9% over the same period last year, accompanied by the release of profits from the trial operation of Jiacheng International Port. The production progress of the company Ka-shing International Port is relatively slow. We have lowered our annual warehousing income and gross profit margin forecast for 21-22-23, and correspondingly lowered our EPS forecast to 1.60, 2.00, 2.35 yuan (previous value:
1.80 + 2.26 + + 2.68 yuan, without considering the dilution effect of fixed increment. Comparable company's 21-year Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 18.8x, taking into account the high boom in the cross-border e-commerce market and the company's long-term capacity expansion plans, giving it a 21-year 25x PE (33% premium to the industry valuation), updating the target price to 40.00 yuan (previous value: 36.00 yuan) and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Production capacity is gradually released, quarterly profits hit a record high
1H21, the company achieved revenue of 600 million yuan, an increase of 19.7% over the same period last year, mainly due to the low base impact of the same period last year; gross profit of 28.7%, an increase of 4.3pct over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in the proportion of warehousing business with high gross margin; and the net profit of returning home was 100 million yuan, an increase of 23.9%. Of this total, 2Q21 achieved revenue of 350 million yuan, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year, and the growth of cross-border e-commerce business offset the drag on the manufacturing supply chain business; the gross profit margin was 29.0%, an increase of 5.5 pct over the same period last year; and the net profit of returning home was 62 million yuan, an increase of 32.9% over the same period last year, a record high.
Cut into Cainiao's cross-border logistics, production capacity drives profitability
The epidemic catalyses the improvement of global online retail penetration, the domestic cross-border e-commerce B2C logistics market is highly discrete, and the market share of head enterprises is less than 2% (China International Freight Forwarders Association: 2020). The company has now cut into the Cainiao cross-border supply chain to share the cross-border e-commerce dividend. In addition to Nansha Tianyun bonded warehouse (120,000 square meters), the company Jiacheng International Port has started trial operation (the warehouse area is about 500,000 square meters), and gradually achieve import and export coordination. Due to the epidemic situation of COVID-19 and the complexity of the project, the production progress of the company's Jiacheng International Port is slow, which is a drag on the performance. At the same time, the company plans to invest in the international e-commerce port in the Greater Bay area (South China) and the Hainan Digital Intelligence Logistics Center to expand the layout of cross-border e-commerce business.
Pay attention to the rhythm of production capacity and maintain the rating of "increasing holdings"
Due to the slow progress of production at Ka Shing International Port, we lowered our annual warehousing income and gross profit margin forecast for 21-22-23, and correspondingly lowered our EPS forecast to 1.60cm 2.00x2.35 yuan (previous value: 1.80cm 2.26xpx 2.68 yuan, without taking into account the fixed increment dilution effect). Comparable company's 21-year Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 18.8x, taking into account the high boom in the cross-border e-commerce market and the company's long-term capacity expansion plans, giving it a 21-year 25x PE (33% premium to the industry valuation), updating the target price to 40.00 yuan (previous value: 36.00 yuan) and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: customer concentration risk, downstream boom risk, tax rate risk.