Key points of investment
21H1 container throughput increased 12.7% year on year, and cargo throughput increased 9.3% +12.7% year on year: According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, 21H1 Qingdao Port achieved container throughput of 11.66 million TEU. On a quarterly basis, 21Q102 achieved container throughput of 555/6.11 million TEU, YOY +7.81%/10.8%, and the growth rate increased quarterly. Our analysis was mainly due to the company's increased route expansion in the first half of the year, compounded by strong demand from overseas markets, which led to continued business improvement.
Cargo throughput +9.3% year over year: From the perspective of throughput tonnage, the company and its joint ventures and joint ventures 21H11 achieved cargo throughput of 263 million tons, a steady increase of 9.30% over the previous year. Our analysis was mainly due to an increase in production capacity and supporting tank production capacity of the Dongjiagang-Weifang Luzhong and Lubei oil pipelines, and a sharp increase in crude oil throughput.
Liquid, freight forwarding, and dry dispersion three-wheel drives showed a 30.7% increase in revenue and a steady 7.6% year-on-year increase in profit. Below: Revenue side: 21H1, the company achieved annual revenue of 7.933 billion yuan, an increase of 30.65% over the previous year, and a two-year compound growth rate of 14.99%. Look at it by business:
1) The company developed liquid bulk cargo handling and freight forwarding business. The above sectors achieved revenue of 1,63/2991 million yuan respectively, an increase of 806/626 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 60.31% and 36.87% respectively over the same period last year; 2) In terms of thousands of bulk goods, benefiting from developing new major customers in the mixed mining business, the sector achieved revenue of 1,907 billion yuan, an increase of 27.68% over the previous year.
3) On the container side, benefiting from the increase in the number of routes, revenue was 152 million yuan, an increase of 64.34% over the previous year.
Cost side: The overall gross profit margin was 35.47%, down 2.86 pct from 20h1. It was mainly affected by the logistics sector and the dry distribution sector, which fell 9.86/10.02 pcr respectively compared to the same period of the year.
Expense side: The cost rate for the period was 4.38%, an increase of 2.14pct over the previous year. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was 0.35% 4.65%/0.15%-0.77%, respectively +0.11/+1.03/+0.04/+0.97PCT. The final company's 21H1 net interest rate returned to the mother's mother by 31.84%, down 6.35 pct from the previous year. Among them, the increase in the management fee rate was mainly due to the 20H1 epidemic social security relief one-time policy factor elimination of investment income side: Qingdao Shihua's net profit increased 8.90% year-on-year to 361 million Yuan; QQCT's net profit fell 6.19% to 830 million yuan. In the end, the company's joint ventures and joint venture investment income fell 3.59% year on year, and 644 million yuan of land and sea were strengthened in both directions, reaffirming the “good volume and price increase” logic. The performance maintained a steady increase in the direction of sea in the medium to long term: increasing routes, expanding capacity, expanding transit, promoting overtime and empty boxes, benefiting from the integration of mainland ports in Shandong Province. With the cooperation of neighboring ports, the company's service shipping company was more capable. Lu Xiangduan: The company continued to step up the development of the inland market and joined hands with railways to expand the supply hinterland, which strongly guaranteed the hinterland industrial chain and the supply chain stabilized.
“Throughput increase” is guaranteed. Among them, in the container sector: 21H1, the company added 15 new routes, including 3 domestic trade routes. Route sorting and density continued to rank first in the North Port. Domestic and foreign trade continued to rise in the first half of the year, and the company's container throughput remained high. Among them, the monthly throughput in April-June was +16.67%/15.61%/13.83% year-on-year. It is expected that the trend will continue to increase steadily in the second half of the year; 2) The diversified sector: cooperating with the world's largest mining giants, and continuing to increase mining capacity and mixed mining Trade mining operations. According to the company's official website, on May 19, '21, Rio Tinto Group's mixed mining business was launched in Qingdao Port, becoming the second world-class mining enterprise to carry out mixed mining business in Qingdao Port after Vale; 3) Liquid bulk cargo sector: The production capacity of the new transfer terminal helped the high-margin liquid sector continue to grow. According to the company's official website, on August 23, 21, the company's Dongjia Crude Oil Terminal Phase II and the liquid chemical terminal were officially put into operation. The new crude oil/liquid chemical design passed 50/253,536 million tons of capacity, respectively.
“Improved rates” can be expected: after the listing and establishment of the Shandong Port Group in August 2019, the first three steps of the integrated “four-step strategy” have been completed. Price competition between cities, cities and ports continues to ease, and is expected to enter a large cycle of collaborative price increases. We expect the rate side to continue to improve profit forecasts and valuations.
We expect the company's net profit from 2021-2023 to be 4,547 billion yuan, 5.330 billion yuan, and 6.256 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 8.1 times, 6.9 times, and 5.9 times respectively. Under the new development pattern of “domestic large cycle mainly, domestic and foreign double cycle” development pattern, the integration of mainland and port in Shandong Province continues to deepen, and rates are expected to continue to improve, compounded by the company's three major businesses, such as containers, liquid bulk, and dry bulk. We continue to be optimistic about the company's future development. We are optimistic about the company's future development. Currently, the company's valuation industry is low at around 29%, emphasizing that the company's valuation industry is low at around 29% “buy”
ratings
Risk warning: The continuation of the global COVID-19 pandemic has exceeded expectations; global trade has deteriorated; sudden natural disasters have affected Hong Kong operations.