21H1 revenue also increased by 16%, rapid order growth and orderly production capacity construction medium-and short-term fluctuations or ease the company's 21H1 realized operating income of 379 million yuan / yoy+16.04%, return net profit of 0.62 million yuan / yoy+3.3%, performance growth rate was slightly lower than our annual forecast (yoy+5.46%), mainly due to large fluctuations in 21H1 raw material prices. Considering the rapid growth of new orders in the first half of the year, we believe that the company's 21H2 delivery and revenue are expected to maintain growth. The fundamentals of the 21H1 industry continue to improve and the company is full of orders. We believe that the company is expected to work with Tao Wen Travel Group to expand downstream applications through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, and move towards a "nasty N" platform company. To maintain the profit forecast, it is estimated that the EPS for 21-23 years will be 0.33 EPS 0.38pm 0.45 yuan, which is comparable to the company's average 21PE valuation of 26x (Wind). The company will strengthen business development, improve downstream prosperity, release new capacity, and give 21PE 30x with a target price of 10.0 yuan (the previous value is 9.9 yuan).
Newly signed orders are growing rapidly compared with the same period last year, and short-term fluctuations in gross profit margin and cash flow are expected to ease 21H1's annual comprehensive gross profit margin 25.53%/yoy-4.51 pct, mainly due to the relatively large proportion of steel in the company's operating costs (about 60%), the rise in 21H1 steel prices, and the average composite price index of my steel net 21H1 steel is 5259 points / yoy+39.0%. The company's cost control is stable, and the expense rate during the period is 10.40%/yoy+0.01pct. 21H1 annual net operating cash flow of the company-8.59 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in material procurement caused by the increase in newly signed orders. Benefiting from the steady improvement of the market and the improvement of industry prosperity, the company's 21H1 new orders exceeded 1.2 billion yuan / yoy+77.81%,21H1 final contract debt of 236 million yuan, an increase of 37.49% over the beginning of the period, and the prepayment increased by 181.82% over the previous period, which was used to lock in the price of main materials.
Downstream customers are expected to accelerate expansion, capacity construction to match the future development of Maanshan base is gradually put into production, Thailand production base construction is progressing in an orderly manner, Jingdezhen project is about to start, and the company's capacity improvement is expected to match fast-growing orders. The company announced on May 20 that it plans to acquire Robotek, an intelligent warehousing and logistics equipment manufacturer (unlisted), whose equipment has been used in automobile manufacturing, new energy, 3C, medicine, food and beverage, tobacco and other industries. customers include Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, Inc., Ningde Times, JD.com, Amazon.Com Inc, China Tobacco, etc., the competitiveness of the company's overall intelligent logistics solution is expected to improve. According to the company's semi-annual report, 21H1 national logistics total 150.9 trillion yuan / yoy+15.7%, logistics industry revenue of 5.7 trillion yuan / yoy+22.8%, is conducive to the company's downstream applications and customer expansion.
Pay attention to the Robert Tech synergy and the gradual release of production capacity, maintain "overweight" rating companies with full orders, with the gradual completion of local projects, capacity release is expected to effectively expand the scale of income.
The company and Robert Tek are expected to form a joint force to steadily expand the scope and scale of business. To maintain the profit forecast, it is estimated that the 21-23 year net return profit is 1.00 million RMB for 115max, and 0.45RMB for EPS 0.33pm, corresponding to PE 26x/23x/19x. Referring to the average PE valuation 26x expected by comparable company Wind in 21 years, taking into account the strengthening of the company's business development capacity and the improvement of downstream prosperity, the new production capacity is expected to be gradually released, giving 21PE 30x a target price of 10.0 yuan (the previous value is 9.9 yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, capacity expansion is slower than expected, industry competition intensifies, raw material prices fluctuate, order confirmation rhythm fluctuates, and real controller business coordination is less than expected.