The 2021 medium report shows that the company's revenue is 38.48 billion (+ 29.6%), the net profit is 1.75 billion (- 14.7%), the net profit after deducting non-return is 1.66 billion (- 5.3%), the comprehensive gross profit margin is 16.3% (- 1.0pct), and the net profit rate is 5.3% (- 2.7pct).
Event comment
The decline in investment income and the construction business dragged down the performance in the first half of the year. 2021H's return net profit grew negatively, mainly due to the decline in investment income and the drag on construction business, and the comprehensive gross profit margin was reduced by 1.0pct to 16.3%. Among them, the gross profit margin of development business was reduced by 0.3pct to 19.1%, and the gross profit margin of construction business was reduced by 2.8pct to 8.3% due to the increase in raw material prices. in addition, the decrease in the settlement of off-balance-sheet projects led to a drop in investment income of 61.6% to 680 million. Although the cost rate also fell 0.2pct, asset and credit impairment losses decreased to 100 million (410 million for 2020H), but the decline in investment income and the drag on the construction business still led to a 14.7% year-on-year decline in homed net profit. By the end of 2021H, the company's pre-collection category is 128.85 billion (+ 3.3%), and the advance / annualized settlement is = 2.0X, and the settlement guarantee multiple is still at a high level among the peers.
Sales are positive, land acquisition is prudent, and the thickness of soil storage still needs to be improved. 2021H company achieved sales amount of 108.98 billion (+ 33.9%), sales area of 790.1 million square meters (+ 29.7%), average sales price of 13793.2 yuan per square meter (+ 3.2%), sales performance is more outstanding under the background of low base. 2021H take 699.9 million square meters of land (+ 1.7%), average land price 4136.6 yuan / square meter (- 6.3%), land amount / sales amount = 26.6% (- 10.8pct), land area / sales area = 88.6% (- 24.5pct), tight financing and high land price, the company's investment is relatively prudent.
The average price of land / average price of sales is 30.0%, and the profit margin of the new project is guaranteed to a certain extent from a static point of view. 2021H company newly started construction area of 5.41 million square meters (- 5.9%), completed 40% of the annual construction plan, completed area of 3.95 million square meters (- 25.0%), completed 32% of the annual completion plan. By the end of 2021H. The company's land reserve (uncompleted capacity caliber) is about 4740 million square meters, and after deducting the outstanding area sold, the thickness of saleable land reserves still needs to be improved.
The debt structure has been optimized and leverage reduction has continued. The interest-bearing debt of 2021H is 76.76 billion, which is 3.15 billion lower than that at the end of last year, of which short-term debt accounts for 27.2%, which is lower than that at the end of last year. The debt scale has decreased and the structure has been optimized. The net debt ratio of 2021H is 95.3%, down 2.0pct from the end of last year; the cash short-debt ratio after deducting restricted funds is 1.03X; and the asset-liability ratio excluding accounts received in advance is 77.4%, down 1.3pct from the end of last year.
Investment advice: the guarantee of advance income is high, and the steady growth of follow-up performance is still supported. The company adheres to the high turnover model, and its operating efficiency (from the perspective of input-output ratio) is in the forefront of the industry, especially the advance income guarantee multiple is at a high level among its peers, which can fully hedge against the industry pressure of declining profitability in the future. and then support the steady growth of subsequent performance. It is estimated that the maternal net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 86.8 billion, 9.5 billion, an increase of 11.7%, 9.8%, 9.4%, corresponding to 2.5, 2.2, 2.0X, maintaining the "Buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. The thickness of soil storage needs to be improved.
two。 The demand of the third and fourth lines is weakening.
3. The settlement progress is not as expected.