The company released 202 1H1 results: only considering the continuous business performance, the revenue was 1.36 billion yuan, + 27.4% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 47.165 million yuan, an increase of 67.3 times over the same period last year.
Our comments are as follows:
PC component business production and sales steady growth, raw material prices, the first half of the gross profit margin under pressure, the second half of the year will be revised.
-- PC components earned 1.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year + 12.4% increase in capacity utilization of PC components, with sales of 457,000 cubic meters and + 25.5% compared with the same period last year. Industry competition intensified, and the price of PC components fell 10.5% to 2492 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year.
-- Gross profit margin decreased by 5.4ppt to 23.8%. 1) raw material costs rose; 2) selling prices went down. The average price of PC components was 2492 yuan per cubic meter, which was 10.5% lower than the same period last year. The unilateral cost of PC components decreased by 3.7%. The rising pressure of raw materials was partially offset by the increase in capacity utilization.
-- the PC component account period increased significantly, from 307 days in the same period last year to 361days. Developers concentrated on collecting funds to take land in the first half of the year, temporarily affecting the repayment, which has accumulated more than 500 million yuan since July, and the repayment situation will be significantly improved in the second half of the year.
The company maintains a prudent signing principle. The amount of newly signed PC component contracts increased by 57% to 2.4 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, reflecting strong market demand, with orders in hand rising 52% to 6.3 billion yuan.
Considering that some of the contracts are open-ended contracts, the adjustment can offset some of the price increases of raw materials, and the second half of the year is often the peak season for the industry, and the gross profit margin will improve in the second half of the year.
The equipment income of the joint venture factory returned to normal, and the joint factory lost less.
Our point of view: Yuanda Housing is a market pioneer in China's prefabricated construction industry, has accumulated rich technology and experience, B-end economies of scale is significant, C-end business has explosive potential: Broad Rubik's Cube was officially released in March and has a preliminary production capacity in June. In addition to the original villa products, Banda Meijia has launched a new 6-story bolted fully assembled building, which conforms to the national development direction of green and low-carbon buildings in the county. These two types of highly standardized construction products will pry the logic of the underlying construction of the industry.
The PC industry is suffering from the double test of cost squeeze and increased competition. We next revise our profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue for 2021-2023 will be 42\ 52\ 6.5 billion yuan (excluding modular construction), yoy+68%\ + 23%\ + 24%, net profit 3.1\ 3.8\ 500 million yuan, yoy+43%\ + 21%\ + 33% respectively, maintain the "prudent overweight" rating, the core business target valuation is 20 times, and the target price is HK $16.7. The company plans to share the business development of module products at the end of the third quarter, and we will continue to track Broad's potential on the C side.
Risk tips: policy risk, account risk, the risk of intensified PC competition, the expansion of the United States housing market is not as expected.