Items:
According to the company's semi-annual report for 2021, the operating income in the first half of the year was 622 million yuan, an increase of 29.77% over the same period last year; the net profit was 83 million yuan, an increase of 8.63% over the same period last year; and the net profit after deduction was 74 million yuan, an increase of 6.20% over the same period last year.
In August 2021, the company announced that the actual controllers, Mr. GUO SONG, Ms. CHEN YIHAN and Ms. LIU DAN, as well as the controlling shareholder, Hong Kong Youbo Technology Holdings Group Co., Ltd., and its concerted actor, Shenzhen Bosco Consulting Co., Ltd., increased their shareholdings by more than 1% as concerted actors.
Guoxin Communications point of view:
We believe that Youboxun is a leading enterprise in intelligent logistics terminals, currently benefiting from the recovery of logistics and retail industry at home and abroad under the background of the epidemic, and long-term benefits from the application of intelligent mobile data terminals in many fields of IOT, and extends from 2C scenarios to 2B scenarios, providing effective support for industrial Internet upgrading. We estimate that the operating income of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 1.62 billion yuan, the net profit of return to the mother is 1.9 million yuan, and the corresponding PE is three times that of 29-19-14, respectively, and the valuation is relatively low. Optimistic about the company's current product layout, is expected to benefit from the Internet of things industry dividend, the first coverage, given a "buy" rating.
Comments:
The leading enterprise of intelligent logistics terminal, extending from 2C scene to 2B scene, is the digital solution provider of IoT industry, and its core business is intelligent terminal products such as intelligent mobile data terminal (PDA), intelligent mobile payment terminal (intelligent POS), special printer and so on. At present, the company's products are mainly used in smart logistics and smart retail scenarios (logistics express, e-commerce, retail, administrative law enforcement and finance), and expand to intelligent manufacturing scenarios (manufacturing, health, food and medicine, public utilities) for a long time. Expand from 2C scene to 2B scene, open up long-term growth space.
Intelligent logistics is an important part of the industrial Internet, which has a broad space for long-term expansion. In the field of intelligent manufacturing, intelligent logistics is the core component of Industrial 4.0. within the framework of industrial 4.0 functional factory, intelligent logistics is not only an important link between supply and production, but also the cornerstone of building intelligent factory. With a certain intelligence and ability of the logistics system, the system can through the continuous optimization of business rules, effective and rational use of resources, provide material demand services, meet the production needs of enterprises, and realize the automation, visualization and controllability of logistics at all levels of the supply chain. Benefiting from its important position in the industrial Internet, the market prospect of the intelligent logistics industry is broad. According to the data of the China Business Industrial Research Institute, the market size of China's intelligent logistics industry is expected to be close to 650 billion yuan in 2021.
Benefiting from the recovery of the epidemic, the company's performance improved quarter by quarter.
From a revenue point of view, 20Q1's performance was affected by the epidemic, and its revenue was only 170 million yuan, down 47% from the same period last year, far lower than the Q1 performance level over the past years.
Since 20Q2, with the relief of the epidemic, the company's revenue growth has always been positive, and its performance has improved quarter by quarter.
On the whole, the domestic resumption of work and production recovery is earlier, and the impact of the epidemic has warmed up earlier. Further, the decline of the impact of the epidemic in overseas areas in the future is expected to promote the company's performance to achieve sustained growth.
Raw material cost pressure is great in the first half of the year, H2 gross profit margin is expected to pick up. From the point of view of gross profit margin, 20Q1-20Q3 gross profit margin level has steadily picked up, which is 34.3%, 35.3% and 36.9% respectively. However, since 20Q4, the chip shortage is becoming more and more serious, and the rising cost of raw materials affects the level of gross profit margin. As the upstream cost upward trend moderates, the company's gross profit margin is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year and profitability will improve.
Continue to increase the intensity of new product development, the forward-looking layout is expected to usher in the harvest period. (1) from the perspective of R & D investment, the company's R & D expenditure has increased year by year in recent years. In the past three years, the company's R & D expenditure accounted for about 8% of business income, while 21H1's R & D expenditure exceeded 50 million yuan, + 25.8% compared with the same period last year. In terms of R & D personnel, by the end of 2020, the company had a total of 451 R & D personnel, a year-on-year increase of + 52%. In the past five years, R & D personnel accounted for more than 35% of the total staff.
(2) from the product point of view, taking 21H1 as an example, during the reporting period, the company released new products such as 5G intelligent terminal DT50 series, ultra-high frequency RFID intelligent handheld terminal DT50U, a new generation of industrial security intelligent terminal RT40, wearable two-dimensional scanning ring SR5600, special printer K329, P8100 series industrial tablets, etc.; launched the first domestic 5G medical PDA (DT50H 5G), medical insurance business integrated service terminal and other new products The high-auction instrument has been used in KFC and Starbucks Corp projects, which can help restaurants and other business places automatically identify materials and commodities and collect statistical data in real time, greatly improving the visualization and fine management level of stores; launch UWB accurate positioning asset management solution.
PDA products:
Logistics express: from a domestic point of view, on the one hand, the overall information trend of the domestic express logistics supply chain remains unchanged. With the decline of the unit price of express delivery and the fierce competition in the industry, the operating efficiency of the express logistics industry will increasingly rely on the improvement of information and intelligence on business efficiency. At present, personal handheld terminals, represented by PDA, have been widely used in the whole supply chain, such as logistics express delivery, and continue to improve the operation efficiency of logistics business. On the other hand, generally speaking, the replacement cycle of logistics express PDA equipment is about 2 years. It is expected that the domestic logistics express industry PDA equipment will enter the update cycle next year, and the shipment is worth looking forward to.
Medical PDA is a new field of the company's forward-looking layout. It is estimated that the number of medical PDA required only by hospitals in China can reach 500000. Considering that the current ASP of medical PDA is about 3000 yuan, the corresponding market size is about 1.5 billion yuan, if we further consider the needs of pension institutions under the aging trend, there will be broad market prospects in the future.
Retail: the company's machine vision and other products expand the retail store scene, and the high-profile products are used in KFC and Starbucks Corp projects with sufficient market space-according to Starbucks Corp's announcement, the number of stores in China will exceed 4700 in 2020 and will open in China in fiscal year 2022; according to Yum China's announcement, as of 21Q2, the total number of KFC stores in China has reached 7609.
Smart POS:
Mobile payments are becoming more and more popular around the world, and mobile payments in developing countries are expected to grow by about 29% a year by 2024, according to KPMG.
The impact of the epidemic further accelerated this trend. For example, 21H1, the company's overseas market revenue totaled HK $3.18 billion, + 33.5% compared with the same period last year, of which USCA (the United States and Canada) and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) increased by 71.7% and 63.2% respectively. Driven by overseas POS demand, Baifu Global POS business revenue continues to grow. The company actively arranges overseas POS business, and in the short and medium term, it is expected to benefit from the overseas POS outbreak opportunities brought about by this epidemic.
Dedicated printer:
The company's Jiabo Technology is a leading company in the domestic special printer industry. Compared with overseas competitors, the company's products mainly have the advantages of efficient market demand tracking, rapid response and cost-effective products. In the long run, as the company increases its overseas layout, the company's dedicated printer business is expected to grow.
Hongmeng accelerated the ecological construction of the Internet of things in China, and the company actively connected to Hongmeng Ecology. On June 2, 2021, Huawei Hongmeng operating system was officially released to consumers. Open source and open Hongmeng system can better support smart hardware manufacturers to develop smart hardware (partners have upstream manufacturers such as chips and modules), reducing the difficulty of B-end development; and is expected to achieve downstream ecological integration through Hongmeng. Optimize C-end experience-take smart home as an example, different brand partners are expected to achieve interconnection through Hongmeng. Therefore, we believe that Hongmeng is expected to accelerate the ecological construction of the Internet of things in China. According to the company announcement, the company has conducted in-depth research on the products and applications based on the Hongmeng system, and some of the company's intelligent printer products have adapted to the Hongmeng system, and will pay close attention to and follow up the relevant technologies and product applications in the follow-up. Speed up the development of more intelligent terminal products adapted to / equipped with Hongmeng system, and actively participate in the construction of Hongmeng ecosystem.
Equity incentive + real controllers increase their holdings and have sufficient confidence in growth.
The company's equity incentive scheme and the increase of shareholders' holdings demonstrate long-term growth confidence:
In July, 2021, the company's equity incentive plan awarded 3.5071 million restricted shares to 81 incentive targets, including directors, senior managers, core managers and core backbone personnel, at a price of 7.80 yuan per share. According to the company's equity incentive program, the company's first restricted stock performance evaluation target is: based on net profit in 2020, net profit growth rate in 2021 is not less than 40%, net profit growth rate in 2022 is not less than 70%, net profit growth rate in 2023 is not less than 100%, three-year compound growth rate is about 26%.
In August 2021, the actual controllers of the company, Mr. GUO SONG, Ms. CHEN YIHAN and Ms. LIU DAN, as well as the controlling shareholder, Hong Kong Youbo Technology Holdings Group Co., Ltd., and its concerted actor, Shenzhen Bosco Consulting Co., Ltd., increased their shareholdings by more than 1% as concerted actors.
Investment advice: benefit from the magnificent demeanor of the AIoT track, give a "buy" rating.
We make assumptions about Uber's core data based on the following logic:
1. Benefit from the intelligent data terminal downstream 1) the logistics express delivery field will enter the replacement cycle; 2) the medical PDA market has sufficient market potential and other industry dividends, assuming that the revenue growth rate in 21-23 years is 40%, 35%, 30%, respectively. With the upward trend of upstream costs easing, assuming that the gross profit margin fell slightly in 21, returned to the previous level in 22-23, and the gross profit margin in 21-23 was 32%, 34%, 34% respectively.
2. Assuming that intelligent mobile payment terminals benefit from overseas POS growth dividends, assuming that the revenue growth in the next three years is 20%, 15%, 10%, respectively, and the gross profit margin is 30%. Due to the epidemic, the base of dedicated printer products in 2020 is low, and the growth rate of 21H1 is relatively high. We assume that the growth rate of business revenue of dedicated printer products in 21-23 is 45%, 25%, 25%, 25%, respectively, and the gross profit margin is 33%.
3. Assume that the growth rate of other business income in the next three years is 40%, 30%, 20%, respectively, and the gross profit margin is 35%. 4, the expense rate will increase steadily during the period.
Based on the above assumptions, we estimate that the operating income of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.62 billion yuan, the net profit of return to the parent will be 1.9 million yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 390 million yuan, respectively, which is times higher than that of 29-19-14. Compare the company with comparable companies such as New World, Communications, Sharp Technology and so on, and the valuation is lower. Optimistic about the company's current product layout, is expected to benefit from the Internet of things industry dividend, the first coverage, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
(1) the growth of downstream demand is less than expected; (2) the shortage of upstream chips is persistent, which affects the gross profit margin; (3) the market competition aggravates the risk.