The S & P 500 closed at a record high for 10 days in August.But strategists are divided on the outlook for the future. no wonderSome investors are increasing defensive hedging。
Just look at stock options.The cost of three-month put options versus call options in the S & P 500 index has been rising since the end of JuneAnd is already higher than the five-year average.
Small-cap US stocks, which are usually more closely related to the economic cycle, are on track for their longest loss relative to the broader market since 2011.
These signs suggest that investors in pursuit of risky assets are increasing defensive hedging as delta spreads and Fed policy makers discuss weight reduction at Jackson Hole.
Francesco Sandrini, senior multi-asset strategist at Oriental Huili, said in an interview, "We continue to focus on risky assets, but hedging measures are in place because while macroeconomic conditions are still resilient, some problems may hinder very high valuations. We think this environment is very fragile. There is no doubt that the monetary environment is affecting economic growth. "
Sandrini favours the use of credit as a hedge against the risk of a 5 per cent correction in the short to medium term.
"it's not going to be a very deep correction," he said, "but it's time for us to do some hedging."
If Bank of America CorporationTechnical analysts' predictions are accurate, so safe-haven assets are likely to rise further. In a report this week, they predicted that Treasuries were at the beginning of an upward trend and said they were bearish on stocks sensitive to economic growth, as well as oil and copper.