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“美元正丧失全球储备货币地位,中美‘交棒’时间不断提前”

"the US dollar is losing its status as a global reserve currency, and the time for China and the United States to 'hand over sticks' is constantly advancing."

觀察者網 ·  Aug 25, 2021 09:58

The original title: "the US dollar is losing its status as a global reserve currency, and the time for the exchange of sticks between China and the United States is constantly moving forward."

[article / Observer net bear detached] "the US dollar will depreciate further", "as if the United States is not interested in maintaining the status of the global reserve currency", "this will cause the US dollar to lose its status as the world's only reserve currency".

In an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance on Aug. 23, Geoffrey Ganglak, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, the "new debt king", reiterated his long-standing view of the dollar, which is "pessimistic and negative" as the world's reserve currency is in jeopardy.

At the same time, he also talked about the current US economy and compared the economic performance of China and the United States, especially after the epidemic. Ganglak pointed out that China is the strongest economy in the world after the epidemic, while the United States has been experiencing weak economic growth for quite a long time, and it is for these reasons that the timing of predicting that "China's economy will surpass the US economy" has been moving forward.

雅虎财经报道截图

As a bond investor, Gunrake, 61, is reported to have a market capitalization of $137 billion, which Barron's, a leading financial magazine, called the "The King of Bonds" in its February 2011 cover story. Gunrake also has something to say about the U. S. economy and the Fed's recent developments in bonds.

"the dollar has enjoyed the status of the world's only reserve currency for decades, which is an incredible benefit." But he stressed that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency was in jeopardy. "my number one view for the next few years is that the dollar will depreciate, and I'm not talking about the next few months at all, but the next few years."

"We are running the economy in a way that has little interest in maintaining the status of the global reserve currency, the status of the largest military power, or the control of global leadership," Gunrac said. As long as we continue to implement these policies, implement them more and more actively and do not withdraw in any way, the route we are studying is clearly moving towards the loss of the dollar's status as the only reserve currency. "

杰弗里·冈拉克接受雅虎财经独家专访 视频截图

He further pointed out that China was "by far the strongest economy in the world" after the global COVID-19 pandemic and blockade restrictions, and that although US gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded with heavy consumption, a large portion of that consumption went to China.

"this is one of the reasons why China's economy is so strong." Ganglak said that people in the United States to see a recession in economic growth, this is nothing new, has been going on for a generation, the United States is facing backwardness.

At the same time, Ganglak also talked about the topic of "when China will become the world's largest economy", pointing out that the timing of the relevant forecasts has been being "pushed forward." "Twenty years ago, some people thought that by 2050, China's economy would be larger than that of the United States. Later, it was thought to be 2040. Now it is thought that in the 1920s, maybe even by 2028, China's economy will surpass that of the United States."

In the interview, Ganglak also combined with his bond specialty to consult the current U. S. economy and the dollar. He said the debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States is the main factor driving so-called economic growth. "so, when you borrow money or print money, give it to those in Amazon.Com IncShoppers can send checks and repay debts and investments. in the end, these goods are imported from China. Is this really economic growth? "

"the reason why the value of the dollar is so high is that we enjoy the status of a global reserve currency, but we don't really respect it enough and we all take it for granted. In the United States today, we seem to take a lot of things for granted, compared with the way people have looked at things in the past few decades and generations. "

资料图:美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 图自澎湃影像

According to Yahoo Finance, the Fed is widely expected to signal at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank meeting (Jackson Hole conference) online later this week that it is about to stop its bond-buying programme during the COVID-19 epidemic.

In this regard, Ganglak also hinted in an interview that at a time when the Fed is about to begin to scale back its bond purchases, it may be wise for investors to invest cautiously in the stock market.

"the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is synchronized with the soaring rise of the S & P 500," he explained. We saw that when they tried to scale back their bond purchases in 2018, there was a small crash in the stock market, which led to a tense bear market in the fourth quarter of 2018, eventually forcing the Associated Press to change its plans completely. "

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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