Events:
The company released a semi-annual report for 2021, with operating income of 209 million yuan, an increase of 0.56% over the same period last year, a net profit of 32.3771 million yuan, an increase of 5.64% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 27.816 million yuan, an increase of 16.69% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The lineage of unmanned equipment products has expanded smoothly, and there are sufficient orders on hand, which will be delivered in the second half of the year. Intelligent unmanned system is the company's first strategy, the company continues to expand the product pedigree, is expected to continue to benefit from actual military training and unmanned equipment configuration proportion increase. In terms of unmanned target aircraft, the products have covered the series of products of 200m/s-310m/s, and major breakthroughs have been made in key technologies. In the field of unmanned vehicles, the unmanned vehicle system has been jointly developed with strategic cooperation units, and has won the bid for the equipment model task of a certain service and arms, which has become one of the few unmanned vehicle projects in China that are expected to be applied in batches. At present, the R & D and appraisal of sample vehicles have been completed, laying a good foundation for mass production. In the direction of the unmanned ship, it has completed the development of the sample ship and the test experiments of its main functions and performance, and has participated in military training activities for many times.
The revenue of 20H1 unmanned equipment reached 78 million yuan, down 36.90% from the same period last year, mainly due to the revenue recognition of unmanned system products concentrated at the end of the year. According to the company's investor interaction platform, the company's in-hand orders increased by about 50% in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year, and there are still signed undelivered orders of about 220 million yuan, which will be completed in the second half of the year.
High growth in information awareness and satellite communications services. Information perception is the core component of intelligent unmanned system, which mainly includes a series of products such as integrated navigation, photoelectric detection, radar detection and so on. The business is developing smoothly. For example, the SCB450 shipborne photoelectric stabilizer, which was developed in 2020, has signed a batch contract and 20H1 has completed the smooth delivery of the first batch. In the first half of the year, the company's information-aware business realized operating income of 70 million yuan, an increase of 107.04% over the same period last year. In terms of satellite communications, the company is moving ZTO Express, and its products are stereotyped in various equipment models of the services and arms, and are promoting applications in the civilian field. In the first half of the year, the company signed a number of major contracts for its satellite communications business, with an operating income of 56 million yuan, an increase of 37.76 percent over the same period last year.
The implementation of the equity incentive scheme, the exercise conditions highlight the performance of sustained high growth confidence. The company implemented the 2021 stock option incentive plan in the first half of the year. A total of 5.414 million stock options were actually granted to 146people, accounting for about 3.50% of the company's total share capital. The performance evaluation requirements at the company level under the exercise conditions are as follows: the net profit growth rate from 2021 to 2023 is not less than 50%, 100% and 200%, respectively. Based on this, it is estimated that the average annual compound growth rate of net profit from 2020 to 2023 should reach 44%, reflecting the company's confidence in sustained high growth in future performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: maintain buy rating. Leaving aside the acquisition of minority shareholders' rights and interests of subsidiaries for the time being, it is estimated that the company's return net profit from 2021 to 2023 is 170 million yuan, 230 million yuan and 340 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS 1.10,1.49 and 2.20 yuan respectively, and the corresponding share price PE is 35 times, 26 times and 17 times respectively.
Risk hints: 1) the risk that the unmanned system develops less than expected; 2) the risk of fluctuation of military orders; 3) the risk of lower-than-expected profitability; 4) systemic risk.