The net profit of 21H1 turns to a loss, and the influence of coal price appears.
Jingneng Electric Power released the report: 21H1 achieved revenue of 10 billion yuan, year-on-year + 10%, return to the mother net profit-300 million yuan, year-on-year-136%; corresponding to 21Q2 revenue 4.4 billion yuan, year-on-year + 8%, return to the mother net profit-370 million yuan, year-on-year-200%. A significant increase in coal prices in 2021 may be a drag on the full-year earnings performance, reducing the 21-23 net profit to 3.2pm and BPS to 3.76comp3.83 and 3.92m respectively. With reference to the comparable 21-year average PB of 0.78x, the company's thermal power assets are relatively high-quality, giving the 2021 0.8x target PB, the target price 3.01yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Thermal power units continue to push forward and actively distribute new energy industries
At the end of June 21, the company controlled the installed capacity 16.79GW, year-on-year + 1.5GW equity installed capacity 19.11GW, year-on-year + 1.23GW. After the second phase of Shiyan thermal power project was approved, the capacity of the company's operation and units under construction exceeded 20GW. At present, the company has a number of distributed photovoltaic county pilot projects in progress, of which the former flag of Otok, Inner Mongolia has signed a framework agreement.
Strengthen the marketing of selling electricity and steadily expand the thermal market
The company actively strengthened marketing to meet the market challenges. The transaction electricity price of 21H1 Company rose sharply, with a total transaction capacity of 210.9 billion kilowatt-hours; the coal price fluctuated at a high level, and the transaction electricity price gradually rose under the support of the policy. The average transaction electricity price of 21H1 Company was 295.54 yuan / MWh, which was + 21.50 yuan / MWh compared with the same period last year. The company expanded the heating and gas supply market, and 21H1 sold a total of 3620 million kilograms of coke, + 9.7% year-on-year, with an average heat price of 27.21 yuan per gig coke, with a year-on-year average heat price of + 0.33 yuan per gig coke.
Adjust the profit forecast and maintain the overweight rating
Taking into account the high volatility of coal prices, raise the assumption of coal prices and reduce the gross profit margin. We adjusted the 21-23 return net profit of the company to $650,000,000 (before: $1.24 billion for 10.9pm) and $3.83max ($3.05m for BPS) to $3.88max ($3.96p) for 21-23 years of return to the parent of the company (previous value: $1.24 billion for 10.9pm) and 3.83max for BPS (previous value: 3.88max). Comparable company's 21-year PB average 0.78x (Wind consensus expectations), the company's current stock price corresponds to 21-year 0.73xPB. The company's thermal power assets are of high quality, giving the company a 21-year 0.8xPB with a target price of 3.01yuan per share (previous value: 3.49yuan per share, based on 21-year 0.9xPB) to maintain an overweight rating.
Risk hint: the increase in coal price is higher than expected, the number of hours of utilization is declining, and the risk of electricity price decline.