Cofco Packaging (00906.HK): 1H21 performance is the same as 36.5%. Two cans have outstanding performance.

中金公司 · Aug 20, 2021 00:00

1H21业绩超过我们预期

公司公布1H21业绩：收入46.92亿元，同比＋38.6％；净利润2.49亿元，同比＋36.5％，业绩超过我们预期。此外，公司宣布每股派半年期股息0.112元人民币。

1、上半年营收稳步向好，两片罐表现亮眼。公司1H21营收46.92亿元，同比＋38.6％，分产品看：1）马口铁包装营收22.51亿元，同比＋35.4％，其中钢桶业务营收6.69亿元，同比＋67.3％，主要受益于行业在成本压力及“退城入园”政策下的加速整合，公司市占率提升；奶粉罐业务收入3.56亿元，同比＋6.9％；气雾罐业务持续拓展新市场与客户，实现营收3.42亿元，同比＋51.3％；2）铝制包装营收21.41亿元，同比＋44.8％，其中两片罐业务收入20.51亿元，同比＋45.7％，主要是下游啤酒高端化推动罐化率持续提升，两片罐销量高增；3）塑料包装营收2.86亿元，同比+21.8%‰

2、原材料价格上涨，毛利率有所下滑。公司1H21毛利率为14.1％，同比下滑2.2ppt，分产品看：马口铁包装／铝制包装／塑料包装毛利率分别变动-3.8ppt／-1.2ppt／＋2.9ppt 至 12.4％／15.6％／16.7％。我们认为金属包装业务毛利率下降主要受上游钢铁、铝等原材料涨价影响。费用率方面，销售费用率维持4.2％，管理费用率／财务费用率分别降低-0.5ppt／-0.8ppt至4.1％／0.6％，有效对冲毛利率下降影响，净利率同比-0.1ppt至5.3％‰发展趋势

后续关注两片罐业务订单情况及原材料价格变化。近年来消费升级推动啤酒罐化率持续提升、碳酸饮料对新罐型需求提升，带动两片罐行业稳健增长，供给端中小产能持续出清，竞争格局优化，头部企业提价意愿一致。中粮包装在深化与现有客户的基础上积极开拓新客户，并且积极推动研发、品牌、产能创新升级，加大对重点产品的产能布局，天津二线、武汉二线产能顺利投产，成都三线计划下半年启动，我们认为未来业绩有望稳定增长。但近期原材料价格上涨可能影响公司盈利能力，建议后续重点跟踪公司订单情况及原材料价格走势。

盈利预测与估值

基于金属包装行业集中度提升加之公司积极拓展新业务及新客户，公司市占率提升，上调2021年和2022年EPS 17％／21％至0.38元／0.43元人民币。当前股价对应2021／2022年10.0倍／8.8倍市盈率。维持中性评级，基于盈利预测调整，上调目标价19％至4.70港元，对应2021／2022年10.7倍／9.4倍市盈率，较当前股价有6.6％的上行空间。

风险

原材料价格大幅波动，核心客户订单波动。

1H21's performance exceeded our expectations.

The company announced 1H21 results: revenue 4.692 billion yuan, year-on-year + 38.6%; net profit 249 million yuan, year-on-year + 36.5%, performance exceeded our expectations. In addition, the company announced a semi-annual dividend of 0.112 yuan per share.

1. Revenue improved steadily in the first half of the year, and the performance of the two cans was eye-catching. Company 1H21 revenue 4.692 billion yuan, year-on-year + 38.6%, product point of view: 1) tinplate packaging revenue of 2.251 billion yuan, year-on-year + 35.4%, of which steel drum business revenue of 669 million yuan, + 67.3%, mainly benefited from the industry in the cost pressure and "withdraw from the city to enter the park" policy to accelerate integration, the company's market share increased; milk powder can business income of 356 million yuan, year-on-year + 6.9% The aerosol can business continued to expand new markets and customers, achieving revenue of 342 million yuan, year-on-year + 51.3%. 2) Aluminum packaging revenue of 2.141 billion yuan, + 44.8% year-on-year, of which the revenue of two pieces of cans was 2.051 billion yuan, + 45.7% over the same period last year, mainly due to the continuous improvement of canning rate driven by the high end of downstream beer, and the high sales of two cans. 3) plastic packaging revenue of 286 million yuan, year-on-year + 21.8% ‰

2. The price of raw materials has risen, and the gross profit margin has declined. The company's 1H21 gross profit margin was 14.1%, down 2.2ppt from the same period last year. According to the product, the gross profit margin of tinplate packaging / aluminum packaging / plastic packaging changed-3.8ppt/-1.2ppt/+2.9ppt to 12.4%, 15.6%, 16.7%. We believe that the decline in gross profit margin of metal packaging business is mainly affected by the rising prices of upstream steel, aluminum and other raw materials. In terms of expense rate, the sales expense rate is maintained at 4.2%, and the management expense rate / financial expense rate is reduced by-0.5ppt/-0.8ppt to 4.1% and 0.6% respectively, effectively hedging the impact of the decline in gross profit margin, and the net profit rate is from-0.1ppt to 5.3% ‰ compared with the same period last year.

Follow up to pay attention to the business orders of the two cans and the changes in the price of raw materials. In recent years, consumption upgrading has promoted the continuous improvement of beer canning rate and the demand for new cans of carbonated drinks, which has led to the steady growth of the two-piece can industry, the continuous clearance of small and medium-sized production capacity at the supply end, the optimization of the competition pattern and the consistent willingness of the head enterprises to raise prices. Cofco Packaging actively opens up new customers on the basis of deepening its relationship with existing customers, and actively promotes the innovation and upgrading of R & D, brand and production capacity, and increases the capacity layout of key products. The second-tier production capacity of Tianjin and Wuhan has been put into production smoothly. Chengdu third-line plan will be launched in the second half of the year, and we believe that future performance is expected to grow steadily. However, the recent rise in raw material prices may affect the company's profitability, it is recommended to focus on tracking the company's orders and raw material price trends.

Profit forecast and valuation

Based on the increased concentration of the metal packaging industry and the company's active expansion of new business and customers, the company's market share has increased by 21% of EPS 17% green in 2021 and 2022 to 0.38 yuan / 0.43 yuan. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 times 2021 / 2022. Maintain a neutral rating and raise the target price by 19 per cent to HK $4.70 based on earnings forecasts, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 / 9.4 times 2021 / 2022, with 6.6 per cent upside from the current share price.

Risk

The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly and the orders of core customers fluctuate.

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中粮包装(00906.HK)：1H21业绩同增36.5% 两片罐业务表现亮眼

Cofco Packaging (00906.HK): 1H21 performance is the same as 36.5%. Two cans have outstanding performance.

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