Report guide
Haili Co., Ltd. is a leader in the refrigeration compressor industry, the traditional compressor business to meet the frequency conversion upgrade dividend + active layout of new energy vehicle thermal management market, performance is expected to usher in the inflection point to return to high growth. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Main points of investment
Deeply ploughing the compressor industry for 30 years, Haili has a stable market position.
The company has entered the rotor compressor industry since 1987, formerly known as Shanghai refrigerator Compressor Factory, using Japanese Hitachi technology. After more than 30 years of technology and customer accumulation, the company has developed into a market leader in rotor compressors, and its share in the field of non-self-matching rotor compressors is more than 30%, ranking first.
The traditional compressor business enjoys the dividend of frequency conversion upgrading in the industry, and the company has a significant advantage in seizing the opportunity driven by the new energy efficiency + "double carbon" policy, the energy efficiency standards of household appliances have been improved, the constant speed air conditioning products with low energy efficiency have been eliminated, and the frequency conversion rate of air conditioners has been improved. good frequency conversion air conditioning compressor manufacturers. It is estimated that by 2025, the domestic sales scale of variable frequency air conditioners will exceed 100 million units, driving up the demand of the upstream compressor industry. As a leader in rotor compressors and deep service leaders and long-tail customers, the company has sold 16.04 million variable frequency compressors in the past 20 years, with a growth rate of 77.29%. At the same time, the frequency conversion rate has reached 61.03%, greatly exceeding the average level of 50% in the industry. Under the advantage of technology and production, the company enjoys industry dividends with strong certainty. It is estimated that the traditional compressor business income of the company will increase from 8.201 billion yuan to 10.995 billion yuan in 21-23 years, and CAGR 15.79%.
The expansion of new energy vehicle business customers is accelerating, and performance growth is expected to benefit from the growth of new energy vehicle sales. The automotive scroll compressor industry has entered a high growth track. China's electric scroll compressor market is expected to reach 5.97 million units in 2025, with 337% room for growth compared with 2020. The company began to lay out the field of automotive compressors in 2001, officially launched the new energy vehicle scroll compressor products in 2012, 20 years of technology accumulation and 10 years of new energy vehicle customer expansion, the company has become a domestic leader in new energy vehicle compressors. At present, the company's customers are mainly BAIC, Weima and Yutong bus, and have confirmed the latest cooperation with BAIC polar fox and polar krypton 001, and the follow-up development of other new energy vehicle customers has a good momentum. Coupled with the acquisition of Marelli automotive air-conditioning business power vehicle air-conditioning system, the company's steam zero business growth is expected. It is estimated that the company's revenue from zero business (including Marelli) will increase from 3.619 billion yuan to 5.614 billion yuan in 21-23, CAGR24.55%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's income will be 16.4 billion yuan, 188.31 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 48.12%, 14.82%, 14.62%, and a corresponding growth rate of 70.35%, 53.57% and 32.31%, respectively, with a net profit of 2.77, 425, and 562 million respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 26.0, 16.9, 12.8 times respectively. Reference to comparable companies, using the segment valuation method, respectively give the company's traditional business / steam zero business 2022 28x/35x PE, corresponding to the 2022 stock price 11.75 yuan. For the first time, coverage gives a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The price of raw materials fluctuates; the customer expansion of new energy vehicles falls short of expectations; the demand for air conditioning market is weak.
