21H1 revenue + 31% year-on-year, performance-14% year-on-year, due to the decline in gross profit margin and minority shareholders' profit and loss increase 2021H1 company realized operating income of 34.22 billion yuan, + 30.9% year-on-year; realized home net profit of 2.53 billion yuan,-14.0% year-on-year; realized basic earnings per share of 0.58 yuan, year-on-year-14.7%. The gross profit margin and the net return rate are 25.8% and 7.4%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-5.5pct and-3.9pct, respectively; the three fee rate is 9.8%, year-on-year-0.4pct. The investment income was 120 million yuan, + 4525.1% over the same period last year. Minority shareholder profit and loss 370 million yuan, accounting for 12.8% of revenue, year-on-year + 14.7pct. The company's high revenue growth and declining performance is mainly due to a large decline in gross profit margin and an increase in the profit and loss share of minority shareholders. By the end of 2021H1, the company had received 86.59 billion yuan in advance, which is + 6.9% compared with the same period last year, which can cover 1.4 times the real estate revenue in the past 20 years.
21H1 sales 59.9 billion yuan, year-on-year + 24% Magi 21 target sales of 130 billion, year-on-year + 2%2021H1 company to achieve sales area of 516.7 million square meters, year-on-year + 19.0%; sales amount of 59.92 billion yuan, year-on-year + 24.3%; average sales price of 160,000 yuan / flat, year-on-year + 4.4%; completion of 46.1% of the company's planned contract amount of 130 billion yuan in 2021. The settlement area is 331.5 square meters, + 56.3% compared with the same period last year; the settlement amount is 31.58 billion yuan, + 39.5% compared with the same period last year; the average settlement price is 9525 yuan per square meter, which is-10.7% compared with the same period last year. The company plans to sell 105 billion yuan back in 2021, which is 8.5% higher than the 20-year plan; the planned new construction area is 491.2 million square meters,-49.1% compared with the same period last year; and the planned completed area is 718.8 million square meters, + 3.3% year-on-year. Considering the positive completion of the company's plans and abundant advance receipts, settlement is expected to maintain steady growth in 2021.
The ratio of 20H1 land to sales is 21%, and the ratio of total inventory to sales is 3.2%. The balance sheet continues to optimize 2020H1's land acquisition area of 302.9 million square meters, year-on-year-35.2%; corresponding land acquisition amount 12.34 billion yuan, year-on-year-40.7%; equity land acquisition amount 8.02 billion, year-on-year-55.9%; equity share 65.0%, year-on-year-22.4 pct; average land price 4075 yuan per square meter, 8.5% year-on-year Land acquisition amount / sales amount 20.6%; land area / sales area 58.6%, year-on-year-49.0pct; average land price / sales price 20.6%, year-on-year-22.6pct. The company's 2021H1 is concentrated in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Xuzhou, Changzhou, Wuhu and other metropolitan areas and key first-and second-tier cities, accounting for 73.2% of the total land held in the first half of the year. As of the end of 2021H1, the company's land reserve construction area is about 3741 square meters,-7.3% compared with the same period last year, which can cover 3.2 times of the sales area in 2020, and the land reserve is relatively sufficient. By the end of 2021H1, the company's asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio and prognostic asset-liability ratio were 80.2%, 66.5% and 70.8%, respectively, compared with-2.1pct,-13.7pct and-3.06pct at the end of last year.
Investment suggestions: positive carry-over, temporary weak performance, continuous optimization of statements, maintain "strong push" rating companies continue to adhere to the fast turnover strategy, has initially formed a "two horizontal, two vertical, three clusters" project layout.
At the end of 21H1, the company has a land reserve of about 3741 million square meters, fully ensuring the needs of future development, and diversified ways to effectively control costs; the company's industrial park is expanding rapidly, providing abundant resources for future real estate development. In addition, the company continues to increase its holdings to demonstrate the recognition of the company's value and confidence in its future development. However, in view of the continued decline in industry profit margins and the weakening of sales in the Midwest, we have lowered our earnings per share forecast for 21-22 to 1.72,1.82 yuan (the original value is 2.90,3.24 yuan), and introduced a 23-year earnings forecast of 1.98 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to only 2.8 times of PE for 21-22 years, and the corresponding dividend yield for 20 years is 7.0%. At the same time, in view of the overall downward valuation of the industry, we lowered the company's target price to 6.60 yuan (the original value of 13.50 yuan), corresponding to a 40% discount on NAV, maintaining a "strong push" rating.
Risk hint: real estate regulation and control policy tightened more than expected, industry sales fell faster than expected
