I. Overview of events
On August 22, the company released its semi-annual report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company realized operating income of 618 million yuan, year-on-year + 8.69%, net profit of 32 million yuan,-36.44% year-on-year, and basic EPS of 0.25 yuan.
II. Analysis and judgment
The required consumption attribute ensures the steady growth of the company's income.
21H1 achieved revenue of 618 million yuan, + 8.69% year-on-year, equivalent to 21Q2 revenue of 314 million yuan in a single quarter, + 8.76% year-on-year. The steady growth of the company's performance, on the one hand, due to the company's main business of fresh bean products, is a daily choice of consumption, and the company is a "vegetable basket" enterprise, the demand is more stable. On the other hand, the company raised the prices of some products in the first half of the year, which also contributed to some price increases. In terms of products, the income of fresh bean products / plant protein drinks / leisure bean products and other products reached RMB 0.98 billion 0.32 billion respectively, which was + 5.58% plus 51.72% /-8.51% and 7.27% respectively compared with the same period last year. Fresh soybean products are mainly opened up by high-end soybean products; the rapid growth of plant protein beverages is mainly due to the recovery of sales of independent bags of soy milk and the introduction of bottled soy milk this year. From the point of view of different channels, the revenue of distribution / direct sales / merchant super realized RMB 402 / 0.66 / 146 million respectively, which was + 13.19% / 80.80% /-7.27% respectively compared with the same period last year. The distribution model is the most important channel model, which continues to achieve rapid growth. by the end of June, the company has 1506 dealers, a net increase of 63 compared with the beginning of the year; the rapid growth of the direct business model comes from the company's vigorous expansion of direct customers and the gradual warming of the catering industry; the decline in super sales is mainly caused by the impact of community group buying and the decline in passenger flow.
The price of raw materials is high, squeezing the profit margin.
Net interest rate: 21H1 company net interest rate 5.10%, year-on-year-3.62ppt, single Q2 net interest rate 6.11%, year-on-year-2.95ppt.
On the one hand, the decline in net interest rate is due to the cost pressure caused by the persistently high prices of raw materials such as soybeans, and on the other hand, the epidemic affected the state to reduce some social security and road tolls last year, and expenditure returned to normal this year. Gross profit margin: 21H1 company gross profit margin 28.24%, year-on-year-11.06ppt, single Q2 gross profit margin 27.55%, year-on-year-13.08ppt. The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the adjustment of transportation costs to the cost side, with the adjusted gross profit margin of 31.72%, year-on-year-7.57ppt; as well as core raw materials such as H1 soybeans remain at a high level, rising costs have squeezed profit margins, and company Q1 has raised prices on some products to cope with cost pressure. Period expense rate: the 21H1 period expense rate is 21.11%, year-on-year-5.85ppt, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 14.68%, 5.24%, 0.70%, 0.49%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-4.6ppt/-0.11ppt/+0.08ppt/-1.15ppt. The sharp decline in the rate of sales expenses is mainly due to the reclassification of transportation expenses to operating costs.
Capacity release brings short-term increment, remote expansion opens long-term market space and looks forward to 2021, the company's income still continues to grow high, the main reason: (1) the consumer demand is stable: the company's main fresh bean products belong to daily household necessities, the demand is stable, not easily disturbed by external factors. (2) expansion of extension channels to increase volume: on the basis of consolidating the advantages of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, the company actively seeks expansion of external market channels, achieves in-depth cooperation with Central China fresh platform, and sets up a catering business department to provide customized services to chain catering B-end customers such as Haidilao International Holding, opening up a broad B-end market space. (3) capacity release: the company's IPO project includes 80,000 tons of fresh bean products production capacity. By the end of 2020, about 60% of the construction has been completed through self-raised funds, and it is expected that some of the production capacity will be successfully put into production from 2021. At the same time, the Yangzhou plant relocation project will also invest 330 million yuan in new production capacity.
In the long run, we believe that in the case of more stringent production technology and environmental protection requirements of the industry, the clearing pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry will gradually increase, which will provide benefits for the continuous expansion of large-scale enterprises. The company will realize pan-regionalization and even nationalization from two dimensions: (1) M & A: the Yangzhou Industrial Bean products Factory acquired in 2008 has achieved nearly 100 million yuan in revenue through the reform of the company's management system and the improvement of the efficiency of the production line. In July, the company signed a "cooperation framework agreement" with Nanjing fruit. In the future, the ancestral name is expected to realize the expansion of Nanjing regional market with the help of Nanjing fruit production equipment, channel construction, brand advantage and so on.
As an important step in the company's extension expansion, it is expected to continue to replicate experience and achieve more regional M & An expansion in the future; (2) Building factories in different places: the company built an Anji factory in 2010 and has now become the company's most important production base. It is expected that the "Anji model" will be promoted in weak areas outside East China in the future to achieve off-site expansion.
III. Investment suggestions
Combined with the company's performance in the first half of the year, we adjusted our previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of 1.348 billion yuan in 2021-2023, which is 14.8% compared with the same period last year. The net profit realized by the parent is 1.07 pound 1.36 hundred million yuan, compared with the same period last year + 6.4 percent, 26.3 percent, 18.3 percent, respectively. The corresponding PE is 1.29 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 1.29 yuan. The company's current valuation is slightly higher than the average 25X valuation of CITIC's other food industries in 2021 (Wind consensus expectation, arithmetic average method). Taking into account the performance growth brought about by the company's future production capacity and channel expansion, maintain the "recommendation".
Rating.
Fourth, risk tips:
Rapidly rising costs, lower-than-expected capacity release, food safety risks, and so on.
