The reported profit is + 5.87% compared with the same period last year, and service innovation enhances competitiveness.
The company's 21H1 realized revenue of 11.435 billion yuan, + 4.17% year-on-year, and net profit of 628 million yuan, + 5.87% compared with the same period last year. Among them, Q2 realized revenue of 6.779 billion yuan and 376 million yuan respectively,-13.72% and-22.72% respectively compared with the same period last year. In the medium and long term, the domestic elevator market operates smoothly, and the installation of elevators in the old residential area is expected to contribute to a certain incremental demand, and the post-market service revenue may be a new growth point (and the gross profit margin of the service industry exceeds that of the manufacturing business). The company's elevator business has stability and long-term growth, and the layout of the new industry has a bright future. It is estimated that the EPS in the year 2123 is 1.16,1.23,1.31 yuan, and the average PE (Wind consensus forecast) of the elevator industry in 2021 is 17 times. Considering that the company, as the local elevator leader, has better operational stability and long-term growth than the industry, it gives the company a reasonable PE of 18 times in 2021 and maintains the target price of 20.88 yuan. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Elevator sales grew steadily, and rising raw material costs led to a steady increase in 21H1 revenue under short-term pressure. affected by the rise in raw material prices, the gross profit margin was 16.64%, which was lower than that of the previous year by 0.46pct. The overall expense rate in the first half of the year was from + 0.87pct to 8.09% compared with the same period last year, of which the rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses were 3.30%, 3.01%, 2.82% and-1.05%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 0.75pct, + 0.34pct,-0.43pct, + 0.20pct. The 2021 homing net interest rate is + 0. 5% compared with the same period last year.
08pct to 5.49%. The net cash flow of operation was 120 million yuan, which was + 885.81% compared with the same period last year.
The demand for the renovation of old ladders and the installation of elevators in old houses is growing rapidly, and the company's service income has increased steadily. 1) the number of old ladders in use in China is nearly 8 million at the end of the year, and the number of old elevators that have been in operation for more than 15 years is increasing year by year; the number of old elevators in the company has exceeded 6000 in 20 years, and the growth rate is expected to exceed 30% in 21 years. 2) installation of elevators: many governments encourage and support the installation of elevators in old houses as major livelihood projects, and the company actively explores and launches the "one-stop elevator service". In 20 years, the company has completed the installation of more than 3000 elevators in old houses. According to the report, the growth rate is expected to exceed 30% in 21 years. 3) multiple branches have been included in the list of elevator on-demand maintenance pilot enterprises, and the on-demand maintenance model is expected to improve the maintenance efficiency and improve the profitability of the maintenance business. The income of elevator installation, renovation, maintenance and other service industries of 21H1 Company has exceeded 3.6 billion yuan, accounting for 35% of the income.
Steady demand, diversified layout of the local elevator manufacturing leader, to maintain the "increase" rating, we believe that under the positive factors such as the renovation of old residential areas, the development of infrastructure such as subways, and the release of demand for the renewal of old ladders, superimposed service-oriented strategic transformation, the company's elevator business is expected to achieve long-term steady development. We maintain the profit forecast and expect the company to achieve a net profit of 11.8,12.6 and 1.34 billion yuan respectively in 2021-2023, corresponding to PE of 14, 13 and 12x.
Risk tips: the growth rate of real estate investment is lower than expected; the process of renovation and installation of elevators in old residential areas is not as expected; the promotion and layout of new industries and new products are not as expected; the price of raw materials is higher than expected.