Event: according to the company's semi-annual report for 2021, 21H1 achieved revenue of 552 million yuan, year-on-year + 26.65%; return to the mother net profit of 79.546 million yuan, year-on-year + 0.55%; deducted non-net profit of 65.099 million yuan, + 3.05% year-on-year
The high base superimposed quotient has declined, while the Q2 income has increased in the low single digits. The company's Q2 realized revenue of 254 million yuan, + 3.06% year-on-year, net profit of 26.572 million yuan,-39.82% year-on-year, and non-net profit of 18.1685 million yuan,-50.82% year-on-year. By category, 21H1 pure oat revenue is 278 million yuan, year-on-year + 5.73%; composite oatmeal revenue is 158 million yuan, year-on-year + 33.31%; cold food revenue is 80.8938 million yuan, year-on-year + 139.78% acid B2B business (mainly to provide other food manufacturers with oat raw materials, semi-finished products, OEM OEM) to achieve 28.51 million yuan, + 73.5%. Among them, Q2 pure oats earned 124 million yuan,-18% year-on-year; compound oats 71.33 million yuan, + 46% year-on-year; cold food oats 38.2 million yuan, + 18% Ting B2B business achieved sales of 16.4 million yuan, + 27% year-on-year. The low single digit growth of Q2 income is mainly considered that under the special background of the epidemic in the same period last year, there was a high increase in income (the growth rate was close to 40%), resulting in a higher base; at the same time, the flow of commercial supermarkets declined this year, and the overall consumption was weak, while the company's main terminal channels were mainly supermarkets, so they were greatly disturbed. According to the research feedback, the channel inventory is low, and the month-on-month terminal demand has improved to a certain extent in August.
The increase of cost investment erodes profits. The company's Q2 net interest rate is 10.47%, year-on-year-7.46pct. Among them, the gross profit margin is 42.92%, the sales expense rate is 26.66%, and the gross sales difference is 16.26%, compared with the same period last year-7.66pct, mainly due to the low base of last year's expenses, this year's spokesmen, the input of promotion expenses and the increase in the salary and expenses of Jiangsu factory workers. The management expense rate is 7.47%, year-on-year + 2.25pct, which is mainly due to the employee salary expense rate of 3.32%, year-on-year + 1.02pct, which is mainly due to the increase in personnel costs in the new factory + equity incentive amortization. The H2 expense rate is expected to remain relatively stable, considering that the 20Q3-Q4 net interest rate is 11.6% and 6.7% respectively, the base effect is weakened, and the improvement in profit growth is expected.
The development momentum of new products is good, and the convenience store channel is laid smoothly. Judging from the new products, the cold-food oats launched by the company last year have a good momentum, and the whole market is still in a period of rapid growth. New products such as wheat bran and five-black oatmeal all show a good momentum of growth, and the current production capacity is tight. From the perspective of channels, the company began to strengthen the development of convenience store channels at the end of last year, and the current laying phase has been basically completed, with initial results.
Investment advice: Ximai, as a leading enterprise, is expected to benefit from the new growth space of the oat industry opened by the substitute food market in the medium and long term. According to the results of the 2021 mid-year report, we adjust our profit forecast and estimate that the company's revenue for the period from 2023 to 2023 will be 1.245 billion yuan, 14.99 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The estimated net profit is 1.51 billion yuan, 15.6% and 21.1%, respectively, and the estimated return net profit is 1.51 million yuan, 15.6% and 21.1%, respectively, compared with the same period last year, and + 14.2%, 15.6% and 21.1%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The EPS is 0.67, 0.78 and 0.94 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 25X, 21X, 18X, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: food safety risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk.