Event: the company released the semi-annual report of 2021, the operating income in the first half of 2021 was 6.29 billion yuan, + 52.0% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 975 million yuan, + 1325% compared with the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profits and losses was 956 million yuan, + 1388% compared with the same period last year.
Comments:
The volume and price of the main products have risen simultaneously, and the performance has achieved high growth: in the first half of 2021, as the global COVID-19 epidemic alleviated, the downstream market demand improved; chemical plants in some overseas areas were affected by extreme weather and other factors, resulting in tight global supply and rising prices of chemical raw materials. Some of the company's leading products rose in volume and price compared with the same period last year, and the operating performance increased significantly in the first half of the year compared with The sales of nylon 66 industrial silk, nylon 66 cord fabric and nylon 66 slices of 21H1 Company reached 26000 tons, 40000 tons and 68000 tons respectively, and the average prices of 21H1 were 29521 yuan / ton, 35109 yuan / ton and 30855 yuan / ton respectively compared with the same period last year, which were + 16%, + 11% and + 76% respectively compared with the same period last year.
Deep ploughing nylon 66 industry, vertical integration of the industrial chain continues to advance: by the year 21 H1, the company has 210000 tons of nylon 66 chip production capacity, 133000 tons of nylon 66 industrial silk production capacity and 80,000 tons of nylon 66 cord fabric production capacity. The company's projects such as 30,000 tons of nylon 66 industrial silk and 20,000 tons of special nylon 66 slices are progressing steadily, and nylon production capacity is expected to continue to be released. In addition, the company actively laid out the upstream and downstream of nylon 66 and acquired 37.72% of the shares of nylon chemical industry in September 20 and March 21 respectively, adding 290000 tons of adipic acid production capacity to fully ensure a stable supply of raw materials upstream of the company. The company invested 300 million yuan in the 50, 000-ton adiponitrile project in November 20, and is expected to be put into production by the end of 22 at the earliest, when it will be further self-sufficient in raw materials and effectively reduce production costs. With the promotion of the integrated layout of the industrial chain, the company's profitability is expected to continue to improve.
Expand the layout of the industrial chain horizontally and start the process of product diversification: the company has actively entered the field of PC. At present, the construction of the first phase of the 100000-ton PC project with an annual output of 400000 tons is being carried out in an orderly manner and is expected to be put into production by the end of October 2021, which will effectively enrich the company's product range and further consolidate the company's dominant position in the nylon industry.
At the same time, the company is building a project with an annual output of 25000 tons of BOPA film, which will enter the field of high-end film and effectively promote the optimization of the company's product structure. In addition, the company is building a project with an annual output of 30,000 tons of 1,6-hexanediol, which will make full use of self-produced adipic acid to produce high value-added ethylene glycol products to achieve the fine development of downstream products. Product diversification provides strong support for the company's high-quality development, and the company's performance is expected to accelerate volume.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: the industry boom superimposes capacity investment, and the company's performance is expected to accelerate. We raised the company's profit forecast for 2021-2022 and added the 2023 profit forecast. The net profit for 2021-2023 is expected to be 17.07 (up 95%) / 20.20 (up 68%) / 2.385 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS1.86/2.20/2.59 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: new capacity is less than expected; raw material prices fluctuate; downstream demand recovery is not as expected.