21H1's net profit increased by 214.80% compared with the same period last year. On August 19, the company released a semi-annual report with 21H1 revenue of 240 million yuan (yoy-32.75%) and return net profit of 19 million yuan (yoy+214.80%). The performance growth was mainly due to the increase in government subsidies and income from asset disposal received in the current period, and the net profit after deducting non-return was-4 million yuan. We estimate that the company's EPS for 21-23 years will be 0.080.10max 0.12RMB (previous value 0.10pm 0.11max 0.13RMB). Using the segment valuation method, the germanium resources business PB is valued at 5.04X, and the company is expected to have a 21-year BPS2.30, corresponding to a market capitalization of 7.571 billion yuan. The 21-year corresponding net profit of germanium components and semiconductor materials is 0.44 trillion yuan. According to the 21-year Wind average PE valuation of comparable companies, the company is given 44.7 picks 78.1X, corresponding to a market value of 2.327 billion yuan, the total market value is 9.898 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 15.15 yuan (the previous value is 11.02 yuan).
The output of main products increases and decreases mutually, and the gross profit margin of photovoltaic applications and semiconductor materials products has been promoted. 21H1 produces a total of 18.17 tons of germanium material products, 3.15 tons of infrared grade germanium products, 1171 infrared optical germanium lenses, 132000 pieces of photovoltaic grade germanium products (folding 4 inches), 15.76 tons of optical fiber grade germanium products, and 34400 pieces of compound semiconductor materials. Among them, the output of germanium material grade products, infrared grade germanium products and optical fiber grade germanium products all increased compared with the same period last year, while the output of photovoltaic grade germanium products and semiconductor material grade products decreased. Benefiting from the increase in the rate of finished products, the gross profit margin of the company's photovoltaic grade germanium products and semiconductor material grade products increased by 7.27/22.64pct to 16.25 pm 44.84% year-on-year, offsetting the impact caused by the decline in production, and the gross margins of both businesses rose year-on-year. In addition, as the epidemic prevention demand gradually stabilized, the company's infrared optical germanium lens production decreased with the demand.
To speed up the progress of orebody stope development and put into production new germanium wafer for solar cells to cope with the decline of germanium ore grade, the company has increased the arrangement for the horizontal development of Dazhai new orebody and stope excavation project. the company expects that the new stope will be put into normal production by the end of this year. In addition, according to the company's announcement on August 10, the subsidiary Zhongke Xinyuan 200,000 pieces of low dislocation density 6-inch germanium single chip production line has been officially put into production, the company expects the project to achieve a total annual profit of 63.64 million yuan. The company is actively achieving capacity expansion, and the company's core competitiveness and profitability are expected to be further enhanced.
The performance is expected to grow steadily and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Considering that the company's output of photovoltaic grade germanium products and semiconductors is lower than we had expected, we downgrade our profit forecast and estimate that the company's EPS for 21-23 is 0.080.10max 0.12 yuan (previous value 0.10max 0.11max 0.13 yuan). Using the segment valuation method, in view of the fact that the germanium price has returned to the 12Q3/17Q4 level, the average PB of the two-stage company is 5.13max 4.96, and the average of both is given to the germanium resource business PB 5.04X. Considering the light assets of germanium components and semiconductor materials, the corresponding market value of germanium resources is estimated approximately by using 21-year company forecast BPS2.3 yuan, which is about 7.571 billion yuan. The 21-year net profit of germanium components and semiconductor materials is 0.44 trillion yuan. According to the Wind average PE (21E) of comparable companies, 44.7 picks are given 78.1X, corresponding to a market value of 2.327 billion yuan, the total market value is 9.898 billion yuan, and the target price is 15.15 yuan (the previous value is 11.02 yuan).
Risk tips: downstream demand is not as expected, the company's product sales are not as expected, etc.
