Events:
On the evening of August 17, 2021, the company released its semi-annual report of 2021: 2021H1 revenue of 552 million yuan (+ 26.65%) and net profit of 80 million yuan (+ 0.55%).
Main points of investment:
The performance is in line with expectations and increase the cost. The company's 2021H1 revenue is 552 million yuan (+ 26.65%), and the return net profit is 80 million yuan (+ 0.55%), of which 2021Q2 revenue is 254 million yuan (+ 3.06%), and home net profit is 27 million yuan (- 39.82%). The slowdown in the second quarter is from a high base last year, and the performance is in line with expectations.
2021H1 gross profit margin 47.05% (- 7.88pct), of which 2021Q2 gross profit margin is 42.92% (- 11.6pct), which is a change in accounting standards "including transport handling charges into cost"
2021H1 net interest rate is 14.41% (- 3.74pct), of which 2021Q2 net interest rate is 10.47% (- 7.46pct), which is due to a 60% increase in management fees of 33 million in the first half of the year.
The rate of 2021H1 management expenses is 5.99% (+ 1.26pct), of which the rate of 2021Q2 management expenses is 6.98% (+ 2.2pct), which is due to increased expenses and amortization of equity incentive expenses after the company's Jiangsu Ximai factory was put into operation. The 2021H1 sales expense rate is 26.08% (- 5.6pct), of which the 2021Q2 sales expense rate is 26.66% (- 3.94pct). The final contract liability of 2021H1 was 20 million, an increase of 2 million; the net operating cash flow of 2021H1 was 9 million, of which 544 million (+ 22.25%) was received in cash for the sale of goods and services.
Cold food continues to grow at a high rate and continues to cultivate target groups. From a product point of view, the company's 2021H1 Pure Swallow series revenue is 278 million yuan (+ 6%), accounting for 50% (- 10pct); compound oatmeal revenue is 158 million yuan (+ 33%), accounting for 29% (+ 2pct), benefiting from consumption upgrading and target group cultivation; revenue from cold food series is 81 million yuan (+ 140%), accounting for 15% (+ 7pct). The cold food promoted by the company has a remarkable effect, and the cold food is expected to continue to grow high throughout the year. From a regional point of view, 2021H1 North District revenue 283 million yuan (+ 21%), accounting for 51% (- 3pct), South District revenue 262 million yuan (+ 33%), accounting for 48% (+ 3pct), the company's South District investment development effect is remarkable. From the channel point of view, the company's omni-channel layout, offline to establish a wide coverage, deep penetration of the multi-level three-dimensional marketing network; on the basis of continuous ploughing KA channels, continue to expand circulation channels, accelerate the development of terminal outlets and products on the shelves. Online to strengthen the layout of e-commerce channels, through user operation and new products, online growth is good, pure oatmeal Tmall single store sales ranked first in the first half of the year.
Continue to promote new products, hot food and cold food. The company pays attention to the research and development of new products, expand the category of new product research and development, and continue to develop and reserve new products. 2021H1 has updated and upgraded 44 SKU.
Hot food, for market segments in-depth mining and focus, strengthen brand upgrading. Launch 5 black cereal oatmeal, high fiber oat bran, a variety of nut oats, etc., improve and enrich the variety of hot food oat products. In terms of cold food, around the needs of consumers, probiotic oats and finger-sucking oats are launched, and a series of products with different tastes are constantly enriched to form a product matrix. At the same time, the original products are upgraded, and the upgraded products do not contain white granulated sugar. the taste is richer, the taste is more crisp, and consumers who are sensitive to sugars are more friendly.
Profit forecast and investment rating: cold food is the key product of the company in the future, and the volume of cold food products is expected to accelerate in the next 3-5 years. After diluting the new share capital, it is estimated that the EPS for 2021-2023 will be 0.68x0.80 EPS 0.97 yuan respectively, and the current share price will be multiple of 26-22-18 corresponding to PE, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic is a drag on consumption; the amount of cold food is not as expected; online expansion is not as expected.